✦ Aurora Forecast AI
G1 minor storm · Kp 5.0 expected · peak 00:00–03:00 UTC

Northern Lights Tonight: G1 Storm – Visible as Far South as Poland

· · NOAA SWPC data

Tonight: storm · Up to Kp 5.0 · G1 minor storm

A geomagnetic storm is expected: the aurora can reach far beyond its usual Arctic zone. Northern lights are possible tonight in Nordic countries, Iceland & Greenland, Alaska, Canada, USA outside Alaska, UK & Ireland, Continental Europe.

  • Nordic countries: Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark
  • Iceland & Greenland: Greenland, Iceland
  • Alaska: Alaska
  • Canada: Nunavut, Northwest Territories, Yukon, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec …
  • USA outside Alaska: North Dakota, Minnesota, Idaho, Montana, Wisconsin, New York, Michigan, Vermont …
  • UK & Ireland: United Kingdom
  • Continental Europe: Germany, Poland
  • Farthest from the pole with a chance: Koszalin, West Pomeranian. ( Oslo ✓ · Montreal ✓ · New York ✗ )
  • Best time tonight: peak 00:00–03:00 UTC
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Aurora Map Tonight

Northern lights oval map, 2026-10-30 13:40 UTC — Quiet activity, Kp 1.7

Right now: Quiet activity, Kp 1.7. Highest probability among the places we track: Alaska (United States), Avannaata (Greenland), Svalbard (Norway), up to 10%.

  • 5–20% probability — aurora possible.
  • 20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
  • Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Source: NOAA SWPC OVATION ·

Open the aurora map

Kp forecast: next 3 days

Current Kp

1.7

Quiet activity

estimated ·

Max Kp next 24h

5.0

G1 minor storm

forecast ·

Storm level

G1

G1 minor storm

  • estimated
  • forecast

Peak: Kp 5.0 · Sat, Oct 31, 00:00 UTC · G1 minor storm

Show as table
Date (UTC) 00–03 03–06 06–09 09–12 12–15 15–18 18–21 21–24
Fri, Oct 30 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.7 2.7 3.7
Sat, Oct 31 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.7 4.0
Sun, Nov 1 3.7 4.7 3.3 2.7 2.3 3.3 3.7 3.3

Kp index now & forecast →

Solar wind right now

Bz

−0.9 nT

south

Speed

331 km/s

slow

Density

3.3 p/cm³

typical

Bt

6.7 nT

Hemispheric power

11 GW

low

Aurora signal: Watch — Bz has been southward for the last 15 minutes. This early sign is our own rule, not a published criterion: a storm needs southward Bz held for hours.

Solar wind details

Best Chances Tonight

Locations with the highest estimated aurora visibility tonight.

Where to see the northern lights tonight: all places ranked →

Northern lights forecast by region

Top destinations: Tromsø · Reykjavík · Kangerlussuaq

27-day aurora outlook

The highest Kp NOAA expects on each UTC day, from its weekly 27-day outlook.

Possible active period: Oct 31 – Nov 1, Nov 9, and Nov 17 – 18.

Kp 5 or higher: storm level (G1 or stronger)

Day-by-day table
Date (UTC) Max Kp Activity
Fri, Oct 30 2 Low activity
Sat, Oct 31 5 G1 minor storm
Sun, Nov 1 4 Active conditions
Mon, Nov 2 3 Unsettled conditions
Tue, Nov 3 2 Low activity
Wed, Nov 4 2 Low activity
Thu, Nov 5 3 Unsettled conditions
Fri, Nov 6 3 Unsettled conditions
Sat, Nov 7 3 Unsettled conditions
Sun, Nov 8 2 Low activity
Mon, Nov 9 4 Active conditions
Tue, Nov 10 3 Unsettled conditions
Wed, Nov 11 3 Unsettled conditions
Thu, Nov 12 3 Unsettled conditions
Fri, Nov 13 2 Low activity
Sat, Nov 14 2 Low activity
Sun, Nov 15 2 Low activity
Mon, Nov 16 3 Unsettled conditions
Tue, Nov 17 4 Active conditions
Wed, Nov 18 4 Active conditions
Thu, Nov 19 3 Unsettled conditions
Fri, Nov 20 2 Low activity
Sat, Nov 21 2 Low activity

NOAA bases this outlook on the Sun’s 27-day rotation: regions that were active one rotation ago may face Earth again. Use it to plan a trip, not to pick a night — storms from sudden eruptions are seen only 1–3 days ahead.

Issued October 26 by NOAA SWPC

Kp index now and the 3-day forecast

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Northern lights: common questions

Can you see the northern lights tonight?

Four things decide it: whether tonight's Kp reaches your location's threshold, whether the sky is clear, whether it is properly dark, and how bright the moon is. Inside the auroral oval — northern Norway, Iceland, interior Alaska — a quiet night can be enough. From mid-latitudes it takes a geomagnetic storm. Check the Kp timeline above against your own location's threshold, then the cloud forecast. If tonight is no, the locations with the best chance are listed below.

What time will the northern lights be visible tonight?

Usually between 22:00 and 02:00 local time (10pm–2am). That window sits around magnetic midnight, when substorms most often peak — and magnetic midnight is not always the same as clock midnight. Aurora can appear at any dark hour; this is when it appears most often. Darkness sets the limits, not the aurora. Above the Arctic Circle there is no astronomical night around midsummer, and nothing to see whatever the activity. Your location page shows the hours that are actually dark tonight.

Where can you see the northern lights?

A ring around the geomagnetic pole called the auroral oval, near 67–68° geomagnetic latitude. Northern Norway, northern Sweden, Iceland and interior Alaska sit inside or on its edge. Storms push the oval equatorward, which is how aurora occasionally reaches Germany, the UK or the northern United States. The North Pole is not the best place. The geographic and magnetic poles lie inside the polar cap, poleward of the oval, where aurora is less frequent than in the ring below it. Each of those countries has a page with its regions and their thresholds.

What Kp index do I need to see the northern lights?

There is no single number — it depends on your geomagnetic latitude, which is not your map latitude. The auroral oval's equatorward edge sits near 66° geomagnetic at Kp 0 and moves roughly 2° further south with each step up the scale, reaching about 48° at Kp 9. Kp describes how large the oval is, not whether aurora is above you — inside the oval it matters much less than cloud. Every location page on this site prints that location's own threshold.

When is the best time of year to see the northern lights?

The dark half of the year. Aurora happens all year; what changes is whether the sky is ever dark enough to see it. In interior Alaska the University of Alaska Fairbanks puts the season at roughly 21 August to 21 April, and the further north you go the more of the summer is lost to daylight. Activity itself is statistically higher around the March and September equinoxes — in interior Alaska about twice the chance of the solstices. A tilt in the odds, not a promise for any particular night. Destination pages show each place's own best months.

What are the northern lights?

Light produced high in the atmosphere when solar particles strike oxygen and nitrogen, typically 110–200 km (68–125 miles) up. It can occur as low as 80 km and, rarely, far higher. The same thing happens around the southern geomagnetic pole, where it is called the aurora australis. The colours come from different gases at different heights: green at 557.7 nm from atomic oxygen around 100–150 km, red at 630.0 nm from oxygen above 200 km in strong storms, and blue or purple from nitrogen below about 120 km.

What causes the northern lights?

The solar wind. When the interplanetary magnetic field carried by it turns southward — the Bz component — it reconnects with Earth's own field and lets solar-wind energy into the magnetosphere. That energy accelerates particles down the field lines into the auroral oval, where they hit the atmosphere. Bz cannot be predicted in advance. It is measured by satellites at L1, about 1.5 million km (930,000 miles) sunward, which gives 15–60 minutes of real warning — the reason a three-day forecast tells you a storm is coming, not that you will see anything.

How do I watch the northern lights?

Get away from the city lights, find an open view toward the pole — north in the Northern Hemisphere — and give your eyes 20–30 minutes to adapt. Then wait: displays come in bursts, and half an hour of nothing is normal. Keep your phone screen off, because it resets your night vision. Check cloud before you drive anywhere — cloud blocks aurora at any Kp — and pick a night near new moon, since a bright moon washes out faint displays. In a strong storm the aurora can reach overhead or even south of you.

How do I photograph the northern lights with my phone?

Hold the phone still — a tripod, a wall, a car roof — turn the flash off and switch on night mode: Night mode on iPhone, Night Sight on Pixel. It holds the exposure open for seconds. Your eyes cannot collect light over time; a sensor can, so the phone records colour you could not see. In the dark your vision runs on rod cells, which register light but carry no colour information. This is why a display that looks grey overhead comes out green in the photo, and why red aurora barely registers to the eye at all.

How our forecast works

For every place, the Aurora Score combines the NOAA SWPC Kp forecast, the probability from NOAA's OVATION aurora oval model, cloud cover from Open-Meteo, darkness and moonlight.

Data sources & methodology → About →