Northern Lights in Iceland
Iceland is a strong aurora destination from September to April, with possible viewing across much of the country when skies are dark and clear.
Tonight's Forecast
Unlikely
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How we calculate the aurora score
UnlikelyWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Iceland (region: high_latitude).
With current Kp 1.7 (location needs ≥ 2.5) and 98% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Iceland.
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Aurora viewing is unlikely tonight.
Aurora visibility in Iceland is unlikely tonight. Current conditions do not strongly support visible Northern Lights.
With current Kp 1.7 (location needs ≥ 2.5) and 98% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Iceland.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Near thresholdKp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
1.7
Near threshold
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
OvercastOver 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
98%
Overcast
Moon
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Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
80%
Bright moon
OVATION
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OVATION
Moderate5–20% probability — aurora possible.
9%
Moderate
Best Viewing Window
12:00 AM – 2:00 AM
This is the best available window, but geomagnetic activity is expected to be low.
Direction to Look
Overhead or north
This is a high-latitude location, so aurora may appear overhead or toward the northern sky.
Recommendation
Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Iceland.
11:00 PM
7/10011:00 PM: 7/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
80%
OVATION
9%
20
12:00 AM
20/100Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
80%
OVATION
9%
20
1:00 AM
20/100Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
80%
OVATION
9%
2:00 AM
18/1002:00 AM: 18/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
1.3
Cloud Cover
96%
Moon
80%
OVATION
9%
3:00 AM
7/1003:00 AM: 7/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
1.3
Cloud Cover
82%
Moon
80%
OVATION
9%
Best viewing window: 12:00 AM – 2:00 AM. Peak around 12:00 AM with a visibility score of 20/100.
Why this forecast?
The forecast is unlikely because one or more key conditions are not favorable for visible aurora tonight.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Iceland breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
7 / 30Geomagnetic activity (Kp 1.7) contribution to the score.
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Aurora oval probability
10 / 30OVATION aurora oval probability (9%) contribution.
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Cloud cover
0 / 20Cloud cover (98%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
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Darkness
10 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (80%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
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Aurora zone
+5 ptsLatitude/zone bonus for Iceland.
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Near thresholdKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Iceland needs Kp ≥ 2.5.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Near threshold
Geomagnetic activity is only marginal for Iceland: expected Kp is 1.7, while this location usually needs around 2.5.
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Cloud cover
OvercastAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Overcast
Cloud cover is high tonight, which can block the view even if aurora activity is present.
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Sky darkness
Nautical twilightAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Nautical twilight
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Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 80% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
ModerateNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Moderate
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Aurora zone
Good zoneHow favourable Iceland's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Good zone
Iceland is in a good aurora region, where aurora is possible during moderate geomagnetic activity.
Data sources
- · NOAA SWPC Kp forecast
- · NOAA OVATION aurora model
- · Open-Meteo cloud forecast
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
Track the Northern Lights forecast in Iceland
Use the app to follow the Northern Lights forecast across Iceland with local aurora scores, cloud cover, Kp index and viewing windows. Save cities and regions in Iceland, compare conditions, and get alerts when the aurora forecast becomes favorable.
- Smart aurora alerts
- Best viewing window
- Hourly forecast
- Saved locations
Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Iceland
The aurora season in Iceland usually runs from September to April.
Auroras can be seen from many parts of Iceland, but cloud cover, moonlight, and city lights strongly affect visibility.