Aurora Forecast Tonight in Keflavík
Aurora season in Keflavík runs from September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
Unlikely
?
How we calculate the aurora score
UnlikelyWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Keflavík (region: high_latitude).
With current Kp 3.0 (location needs ≥ 4) and 8% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Keflavík.
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Aurora viewing is unlikely tonight.
Skies may be clear in Keflavík, but aurora activity is currently too weak for a good viewing chance.
With current Kp 3.0 (location needs ≥ 4) and 8% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Keflavík.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Near thresholdKp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
3.0
Near threshold
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
Clear skiesUp to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
0%
Clear skies
Moon
?
Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
88%
Bright moon
OVATION
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OVATION
Moderate5–20% probability — aurora possible.
14%
Moderate
Best Viewing Window
11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.
Direction to Look
Overhead or north
This is a high-latitude location, so aurora may appear overhead or toward the northern sky.
Recommendation
Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Keflavík.
10:00 PM
11/10010:00 PM: 11/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
2.0
Cloud Cover
1%
Moon
88%
OVATION
14%
33
11:00 PM
33/100Max Kp
3.0
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
88%
OVATION
14%
33
12:00 AM
33/100Max Kp
3.0
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
88%
OVATION
14%
33
1:00 AM
33/100Max Kp
3.0
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
88%
OVATION
14%
33
2:00 AM
33/100Max Kp
3.0
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
88%
OVATION
14%
3:00 AM
33/100Max Kp
3.0
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
88%
OVATION
14%
4:00 AM
12/1004:00 AM: 12/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
3.0
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
88%
OVATION
14%
Best viewing window: 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM. Peak around 11:00 PM with a visibility score of 33/100.
Why this forecast?
The forecast is unlikely because one or more key conditions are not favorable for visible aurora tonight.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Keflavík breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
5 / 30Geomagnetic activity (Kp 3.0) contribution to the score.
?
Aurora oval probability
10 / 30OVATION aurora oval probability (14%) contribution.
?
Cloud cover
18 / 20Cloud cover (8%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
?
Darkness
10 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (88%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
?
Aurora zone
+5 ptsLatitude/zone bonus for Keflavík.
?
Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Near thresholdKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Keflavík needs Kp ≥ 4.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Near threshold
Geomagnetic activity is only marginal for Keflavík: expected Kp is 3.0, while this location usually needs around 4.
?
Cloud cover
Clear skiesAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Clear skies
Skies are mostly clear, which is favorable for seeing the aurora.
?
Sky darkness
Nautical twilightAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Nautical twilight
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Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 88% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
ModerateNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Moderate
?
Aurora zone
Good zoneHow favourable Keflavík's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Good zone
Keflavík is in a good aurora region, where aurora is possible during moderate geomagnetic activity.
Data sources
- · NOAA SWPC Kp forecast
- · NOAA OVATION aurora model
- · Open-Meteo cloud forecast
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
Get aurora alerts for Keflavík
Save Keflavík in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.
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- Hourly forecast
- Saved locations
Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Keflavík
The aurora season in Keflavík usually runs from September to April.
Keflavík sits at 65.7° magnetic latitude, which means aurora typically becomes visible when the Kp index reaches 4.0+. Being further from Reykjavík's core, light pollution is slightly reduced, but strong activity is still needed. The best viewing season is during the dark months from September to April.