Who made this site
Aurora Forecast AI was created and is run by Aleksei Morozov, an independent product developer based in Gdańsk, Poland, with more than 15 years of experience in web and mobile products, search and product analytics.
I built Aurora Forecast AI because most northern lights forecast tools answer the wrong question. They show a global Kp value, but what people want to know is simpler: can I see the northern lights tonight, from where I am, and at what time? Answering that means combining geomagnetic activity with the things the Kp index ignores: the threshold for your own location, cloud cover, how dark the sky really gets, and how bright the moon will be.
I have been watching the aurora since 2020 and I am a keen photographer. I badly wanted a service that would tell me when there was a chance of aurora tonight — which is how the idea for this site came about.
I design and build the whole service myself: the forecast logic, the data pipeline, the website in nine languages, and the iOS and Android apps. You can find me on LinkedIn and on X.
The site is operated by my company, Appresio Ltd, registered in England (company number 16738606).
How the forecast works
The numbers for every location are computed from public scientific data, not from guesswork:
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: the 3-day Kp forecast and the OVATION model of the auroral oval, which go into the score, and the observed Kp, which the pages show as the current value.
- Open-Meteo: hourly cloud cover for every location.
- Astronomical calculations: darkness, the phase of the moon and how much of it is lit.
They are combined into an Aurora Score and a best viewing window for each of nearly 1,000 places. The score is recomputed every 15 minutes. The full method, including the thresholds and the limits, is on the methodology page.
What this site is, and what it is not
I am a product developer, not a space physicist. I do not make my own space weather observations. I rely on data from NOAA and other published sources and turn it into a practical, local answer. Aurora forecasting has real limits: the solar wind conditions that set a display off can only be measured 15 to 60 minutes before they arrive. I would rather tell you honestly that tonight is unlikely than promise a show that does not happen.
Corrections and contact
If you find a mistake — a wrong region, a wrong threshold, a problem with a translation — please tell me. I check every report and update the page. If a correction changes the forecast method, it is noted on the methodology page.
The way to reach me is the contact form.