Aurora Forecast Tonight in Toronto

Aurora season in Toronto runs from September to April.

Tonight's Forecast

Moderate

How we calculate the aurora score

Moderate

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Toronto (region: mid_latitude).

With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 5) and 33% cloud cover, aurora may be visible at Toronto from a dark spot, once your eyes have adjusted.

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Moderate chance tonight. Aurora may be visible from a dark spot if the sky stays clear.

Aurora Score 50 /100

Aurora visibility in Toronto is moderate tonight. Northern Lights may be visible if geomagnetic activity holds and local skies remain clear.

With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 5) and 33% cloud cover, aurora may be visible at Toronto from a dark spot, once your eyes have adjusted.

Max Kp

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

5.0

Enough for this location

Cloud Cover

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

12%

Clear skies

Moon

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

77%

Bright moon

OVATION

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Low

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Best Viewing Window

10:00 PM – 1:00 AM

Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.

🧭

Direction to Look

North

Min Kp 5 Lat 43.7°

At this latitude, aurora is usually seen toward the northern horizon.

Recommendation

Watch the forecast and be ready to go outside if Kp rises or cloud cover improves.

Hour-by-hour visibility

Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Toronto.

10:00 PM

49/100

10:00 PM: 49/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.7

Cloud Cover

16%

Moon

77%

OVATION

11:00 PM

47/100

11:00 PM: 47/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.7

Cloud Cover

22%

Moon

77%

OVATION

12:00 AM

50/100

12:00 AM: 50/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.7

Cloud Cover

Moon

77%

OVATION

1:00 AM

47/100

1:00 AM: 47/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

Moon

77%

OVATION

2:00 AM

30/100

2:00 AM: 30/100 — low

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

88%

Moon

77%

OVATION

10:00 PM

11:00 PM

12:00 AM

1:00 AM

2:00 AM

Best viewing window: 10:00 PM – 1:00 AM. Peak around 12:00 AM with a visibility score of 50/100.

Why this forecast?

There is a moderate chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions are favorable, but clouds, moonlight or geomagnetic activity may still limit visibility.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Toronto breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity

20 / 40

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 5.0) contribution to the score.

20 / 40

Aurora oval probability

0 / 20

OVATION aurora oval probability (0%) contribution.

0 / 20

Cloud cover

13 / 20

Cloud cover (33%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

13 / 20

Darkness

15 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

15 / 15

Moonlight

1 / 5

Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

1 / 5

Aurora activity 33 / 100

Sky visibility 74 / 100

Final score 50 / 100

✓

Geomagnetic activity 5.0 / 5

Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Enough for this location

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Toronto needs Kp ≥ 5.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Enough for this location

Expected Kp 5.0 reaches the 5 that Toronto usually needs, so activity is not what limits the night — cloud, darkness and the moon decide the rest.

✓

Cloud cover 12%

Cloud cover

Clear skies

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Clear skies

Skies are mostly clear, which is favorable for seeing the aurora.

✓

Darkness astronomical

Sky darkness

Astronomical darkness

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

Astronomical darkness

The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.

Moonlight 77%

Moon illumination

Bright moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Bright moon

Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.

Aurora oval probability 0%

Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Low

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Low

The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.

•

Aurora zone Fair zone

Aurora zone

Fair zone

How favourable Toronto's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Fair zone

Toronto is in an occasional aurora region, so stronger geomagnetic activity is usually needed.

Data sources

How this forecast works

3-Day Aurora Forecast for Toronto

Tonight

Moderate

Max Kp5.0

Cloud Cover33%

Moon77%

10:00 PM–1:00 AM

Tomorrow night

Low

Max Kp4.7

Cloud Cover60%

Moon66%

10:00 PM–12:00 AM

In 2 nights

Unlikely

Max Kp2.7

Cloud Cover98%

2:00 AM–4:00 AM

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Toronto

Save Toronto in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.

Smart aurora alerts
Best viewing window
Hourly forecast
Saved locations

Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Toronto

Best: September to April Peak: January and December

November December January February

The aurora season in Toronto usually runs from September to April.

Hours of darkness in Toronto

Dark hours per night
January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
11.3	10.2	9.0	7.2	5.2	3.8	4.5	6.3	8.2	9.8	11.0	11.7

Other aurora viewing spots near Toronto

🇨🇦

Mississauga

Ontario

🇨🇦

Brampton

Ontario

🇨🇦

Oshawa

Ontario

🇨🇦

St. Catharines

Ontario

🇨🇦

Hamilton

Ontario

🇨🇦

Guelph

Ontario

🇨🇦

Barrie

Ontario

🇺🇸

Buffalo

New York

🇨🇦

Peterborough

Ontario

🇺🇸

Erie

Pennsylvania

Frequently Asked Questions

Can you see the Northern Lights in Toronto tonight?

Only during a storm. Toronto needs Kp 5 or higher before the oval reaches it, and that happens a handful of nights in a year rather than most weeks. Even then it takes a clear sky, real darkness and a dim moon — cloud blocks aurora at any Kp.

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Toronto?

Toronto lies at 52.5° geomagnetic latitude — roughly 14° south of the quiet oval's edge — so it takes a geomagnetic storm, Kp 5 or higher, before the ring reaches you, low on the northern horizon rather than overhead.

What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Toronto?

September to April, with December to January the darkest stretch — though at this latitude the season is set by how often a storm reaches you, not by daylight.

Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Toronto?

Toronto is large enough that its own sky-glow is the main obstacle, so plan on leaving it. Head out away from the lit side until the glow is behind you, and find an open view toward the north — a lake shore, a ridge, anywhere the horizon is not built up. Let your eyes adjust for 20–30 minutes once you are there, and keep the phone screen off.