Aurora Forecast Tonight in Cold Bay
Aurora season in Cold Bay runs from September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
Unlikely
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How we calculate the aurora score
UnlikelyWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Cold Bay (region: mid_latitude).
With current Kp 2.3 (location needs ≥ 5) and 67% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Cold Bay.
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Aurora viewing is unlikely tonight.
Aurora visibility in Cold Bay is unlikely tonight. Current conditions do not strongly support visible Northern Lights.
With current Kp 2.3 (location needs ≥ 5) and 67% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Cold Bay.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Below thresholdKp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
2.3
Below threshold
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
Partly cloudy25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
45%
Partly cloudy
Moon
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Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
86%
Bright moon
OVATION
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OVATION
LowLess than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
1%
Low
Best Viewing Window
10:00 PM – 12:00 AM
Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.
Direction to Look
North
At this latitude, aurora is usually seen toward the northern horizon.
Recommendation
Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Cold Bay.
39
10:00 PM
39/10010:00 PM: 39/100 — low
Max Kp
2.3
Moon
86%
OVATION
1%
39
11:00 PM
39/10011:00 PM: 39/100 — low
Max Kp
1.7
Moon
86%
OVATION
1%
12:00 AM
30/10012:00 AM: 30/100 — low
Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
45%
Moon
86%
OVATION
1%
1:00 AM
28/1001:00 AM: 28/100 — low
Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
52%
Moon
86%
OVATION
1%
Best viewing window: 10:00 PM – 12:00 AM. Peak around 10:00 PM with a visibility score of 39/100.
Why this forecast?
The forecast is unlikely because one or more key conditions are not favorable for visible aurora tonight.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Cold Bay breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
0 / 40Geomagnetic activity (Kp 2.3) contribution to the score.
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Aurora oval probability
3 / 20OVATION aurora oval probability (1%) contribution.
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Cloud cover
7 / 20Cloud cover (67%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
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Darkness
15 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (86%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Below thresholdKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Cold Bay needs Kp ≥ 5.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Below threshold
Geomagnetic activity is below the usual visibility threshold for Cold Bay: expected Kp is 2.3, while this location usually needs around 5.
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Cloud cover
Partly cloudyAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Partly cloudy
Some clouds are expected, but aurora may still be visible through clear gaps.
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Sky darkness
Astronomical darknessAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Astronomical darkness
The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.
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Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 86% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
LowNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Low
The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.
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Aurora zone
Fair zoneHow favourable Cold Bay's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Fair zone
Cold Bay is in an occasional aurora region, so stronger geomagnetic activity is usually needed.
3-Day Aurora Forecast for Cold Bay
Tonight
Unlikely
10:00 PM–12:00 AM
Tomorrow night
Low
10:00 PM–12:00 AM
In 2 nights
Moderate
11:00 PM–1:00 AM
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
Get aurora alerts for Cold Bay
Save Cold Bay in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.
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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Cold Bay
The aurora season in Cold Bay usually runs from September to April.
Hours of darkness in Cold Bay
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.8 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 12.3 |
No astronomical darkness: 7 May – 5 August
Other aurora viewing spots near Cold Bay
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you see the Northern Lights in Cold Bay tonight?
Only during a storm. Cold Bay needs Kp 5 or higher before the oval reaches it, and that happens a handful of nights in a year rather than most weeks. Even then it takes a clear sky, real darkness and a dim moon — cloud blocks aurora at any Kp.
What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Cold Bay?
Cold Bay lies at 52.9° geomagnetic latitude — roughly 13° south of the quiet oval's edge — so it takes a geomagnetic storm, Kp 5 or higher, before the ring reaches you, low on the northern horizon rather than overhead.
What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Cold Bay?
September to April, with January, February, October the darkest stretch — though at this latitude the season is set by how often a storm reaches you, not by daylight.
Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Cold Bay?
You can watch from Cold Bay itself. With this few lights around, a garden or the nearest open field is enough, provided nothing blocks the northern horizon. What matters more here is the moon: a bright one washes out faint aurora, so nights near new moon are the ones to pick.