Aurora Forecast Tonight in Chignik Lake

Aurora season in Chignik Lake runs from September to April.

Tonight's Forecast

Low

How we calculate the aurora score

Low

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Chignik Lake (region: mid_latitude).

With current Kp 4.7 (location needs ≥ 5) and 85% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Chignik Lake, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Low chance tonight. Aurora may be possible only under very favorable local conditions.

Aurora Score 38 /100

Aurora visibility in Chignik Lake is low tonight. A stronger geomagnetic storm or better local conditions would improve the chance of seeing the Northern Lights.

With current Kp 4.7 (location needs ≥ 5) and 85% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Chignik Lake, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.

Max Kp

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

4.7

Near threshold

Cloud Cover

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

91%

Overcast

Moon

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

77%

Bright moon

OVATION

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Low

🕐

Best Viewing Window

10:00 PM – 12:00 AM

Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.

🧭

Direction to Look

North

Min Kp 5 Lat 55.8°

At this latitude, aurora is usually seen toward the northern horizon.

Recommendation

Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.

Hour-by-hour visibility

Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Chignik Lake.

10:00 PM

33/100

10:00 PM: 33/100 — low

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

85%

Moon

77%

OVATION

11:00 PM

28/100

11:00 PM: 28/100 — low

Max Kp

4.0

Cloud Cover

91%

Moon

77%

OVATION

12:00 AM

26/100

12:00 AM: 26/100 — low

Max Kp

4.0

Cloud Cover

97%

Moon

77%

OVATION

1:00 AM

31/100

1:00 AM: 31/100 — low

Max Kp

4.0

Cloud Cover

73%

Moon

77%

OVATION

10:00 PM

11:00 PM

12:00 AM

1:00 AM

Best viewing window: 10:00 PM – 12:00 AM. Peak around 10:00 PM with a visibility score of 33/100.

Why this forecast?

There is a low chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions may help, but overall the forecast does not strongly support visibility.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Chignik Lake breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity

16 / 40

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 4.7) contribution to the score.

16 / 40

Aurora oval probability

3 / 20

OVATION aurora oval probability (1%) contribution.

3 / 20

Cloud cover

3 / 20

Cloud cover (85%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

3 / 20

Darkness

15 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

15 / 15

Moonlight

1 / 5

Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

1 / 5

Aurora activity 31 / 100

Sky visibility 48 / 100

Final score 38 / 100

•

Geomagnetic activity 4.7 / 5

Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Near threshold

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Chignik Lake needs Kp ≥ 5.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Near threshold

Geomagnetic activity is close to the threshold for Chignik Lake: expected Kp is 4.7, and this location usually needs around 5. A faint aurora low on the horizon is possible.

Cloud cover 91%

Cloud cover

Overcast

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Overcast

Cloud cover is high tonight, which can block the view even if aurora activity is present.

✓

Darkness astronomical

Sky darkness

Astronomical darkness

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

Astronomical darkness

The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.

Moonlight 77%

Moon illumination

Bright moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Bright moon

Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.

Aurora oval probability 1%

Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Low

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Low

The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.

•

Aurora zone Fair zone

Aurora zone

Fair zone

How favourable Chignik Lake's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Fair zone

Chignik Lake is in an occasional aurora region, so stronger geomagnetic activity is usually needed.

Data sources

How this forecast works

3-Day Aurora Forecast for Chignik Lake

Tonight

Low

Max Kp4.7

Cloud Cover85%

Moon77%

10:00 PM–12:00 AM

Tomorrow night

Low

Max Kp4.7

Cloud Cover92%

Moon66%

3:00 AM–5:00 AM

In 2 nights

Low

Cloud Cover100%

10:00 PM–2:00 AM

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Chignik Lake

Save Chignik Lake in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.

Smart aurora alerts
Best viewing window
Hourly forecast
Saved locations

Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Chignik Lake

Best: September to April Peak: January, February, October and November

September October November December January February March April

The aurora season in Chignik Lake usually runs from September to April.

Hours of darkness in Chignik Lake

Dark hours per night
January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
11.8	10.2	8.0	4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.8	6.8	9.3	11.3	12.3

No astronomical darkness: 5 May – 7 August

Other aurora viewing spots near Chignik Lake

🇺🇸

Chignik Lagoon

Alaska

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Chignik

Alaska

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Chevak

Alaska

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Sand Point

Alaska

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Port Heiden

Alaska

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King Cove

Alaska

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Cold Bay

Alaska

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Nelson Lagoon

Alaska

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False Pass

Alaska

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Egegik

Alaska

Frequently Asked Questions

Can you see the Northern Lights in Chignik Lake tonight?

Only during a storm. Chignik Lake needs Kp 5 or higher before the oval reaches it, and that happens a handful of nights in a year rather than most weeks. Even then it takes a clear sky, real darkness and a dim moon — cloud blocks aurora at any Kp.

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Chignik Lake?

Chignik Lake lies at 54.0° geomagnetic latitude — roughly 12° south of the quiet oval's edge — so it takes a geomagnetic storm, Kp 5 or higher, before the ring reaches you, low on the northern horizon rather than overhead.

What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Chignik Lake?

September to April, with January, February, October, November the darkest stretch — though at this latitude the season is set by how often a storm reaches you, not by daylight.

Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Chignik Lake?

The best places to see the Northern Lights in Chignik Lake are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.