Aurora Forecast Tonight in Churchill

Aurora season in Churchill runs from September to March.

Tonight's Forecast

Unlikely

How we calculate the aurora score

Unlikely

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Churchill (region: auroral_oval).

With current Kp 1.3 (location needs ≥ 3) and 0% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Churchill.

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Aurora viewing is unlikely tonight.

Aurora Score 18 /100

Skies may be clear in Churchill, but aurora activity is currently too weak for a good viewing chance.

With current Kp 1.3 (location needs ≥ 3) and 0% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Churchill.

Max Kp

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

1.3

Below threshold

Cloud Cover

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Clear skies

Moon

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

80%

Bright moon

OVATION

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Moderate

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Best Viewing Window

12:00 AM – 3:00 AM

Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.

🧭

Direction to Look

11/100

4:00 AM: 11/100 — unlikely

Max Kp

1.3

Cloud Cover

Moon

80%

OVATION

11:00 PM

12:00 AM

1:00 AM

2:00 AM

3:00 AM

4:00 AM

Best viewing window: 12:00 AM – 3:00 AM. Peak around 12:00 AM with a visibility score of 46/100.

Why this forecast?

The forecast is unlikely because one or more key conditions are not favorable for visible aurora tonight.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Churchill breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity

0 / 30

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 1.3) contribution to the score.

0 / 30

Aurora oval probability

10 / 30

OVATION aurora oval probability (7%) contribution.

10 / 30

Cloud cover

20 / 20

Cloud cover (0%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

20 / 20

Darkness

15 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

15 / 15

Moonlight

1 / 5

Moon illumination (80%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

1 / 5

Aurora zone

+10 pts

Latitude/zone bonus for Churchill.

+10 pts

Aurora activity 28 / 100

Sky visibility 36 / 100

Final score 18 / 100

Geomagnetic activity 1.3 / 3

Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Below threshold

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Churchill needs Kp ≥ 3.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Below threshold

Geomagnetic activity is below the usual visibility threshold for Churchill: expected Kp is 1.3, while this location usually needs around 3.

✓

Cloud cover 0%

Cloud cover

Clear skies

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Clear skies

Skies are mostly clear, which is favorable for seeing the aurora.

✓

Darkness astronomical

Sky darkness

Astronomical darkness

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

Astronomical darkness

Moonlight 80%

Moon illumination

Bright moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Bright moon

Moon is 80% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.

•

Aurora oval probability 7%

Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Moderate

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Moderate

✓

Aurora zone Excellent zone

Aurora zone

Excellent zone

How favourable Churchill's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Excellent zone

Churchill is in a prime aurora zone, so aurora can be visible during regular activity when skies are dark and clear.

Data sources

· NOAA SWPC Kp forecast
· NOAA OVATION aurora model
· Open-Meteo cloud forecast

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Churchill

Save Churchill in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.

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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Churchill

Best: September to March Peak: January, February and March

September October November December January February March

The aurora season in Churchill usually runs from September to March.

Churchill is located in the auroral oval region, which means auroras can often become visible when the Kp index reaches around 3 or higher. The best chances usually come during the darkest months of the season, with clear skies and low light pollution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Churchill?

In Churchill, a Kp index around 3+ usually gives a realistic chance of visible aurora, depending on darkness, clouds, and light pollution.

What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Churchill?

The best months to see the Northern Lights in Churchill are typically September to March, when nights are darker and aurora viewing conditions are better.

Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Churchill?

The best places to see the Northern Lights in Churchill are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.