✦ Aurora Forecast AI

Aurora Forecast Tonight in Portage la Prairie

Aurora season in Portage la Prairie runs from September to April.

Tonight's Forecast

Moderate

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How we calculate the aurora score

Moderate

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Portage la Prairie (region: high_latitude).

With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 4) and 71% cloud cover, aurora may be visible at Portage la Prairie from a dark spot, once your eyes have adjusted.

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Moderate chance tonight. Aurora may be visible from a dark spot if the sky stays clear.

Aurora Score 51 /100

Aurora activity may be favorable near Portage la Prairie, but cloud cover could make the Northern Lights difficult or impossible to see.

With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 4) and 71% cloud cover, aurora may be visible at Portage la Prairie from a dark spot, once your eyes have adjusted.

Max Kp

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Max Kp

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

5.0

Enough for this location

Cloud Cover

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Cloud Cover

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

7%

Clear skies

Moon

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Moon

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

77%

Bright moon

OVATION

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OVATION

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

1%

Low

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Best Viewing Window

12:00 AM – 2:00 AM

Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.

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Direction to Look

N E S W

Overhead or north

Min Kp 4 Lat 49.9°

This is a high-latitude location, so aurora may appear overhead or toward the northern sky.

Recommendation

Cloud cover is the main problem tonight. Wait for breaks in the clouds before going out.

Hour-by-hour visibility

Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Portage la Prairie.

42

11:00 PM

42/100

11:00 PM: 42/100 — low

Max Kp

4.7

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

77%

OVATION

1%

58

12:00 AM

58/100

12:00 AM: 58/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

5%

Moon

77%

OVATION

1%

58

1:00 AM

58/100

1:00 AM: 58/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

5%

Moon

77%

OVATION

1%

57

2:00 AM

57/100

2:00 AM: 57/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

12%

Moon

77%

OVATION

1%

36

3:00 AM

36/100

3:00 AM: 36/100 — low

Max Kp

4.0

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

77%

OVATION

1%

11:00 PM
12:00 AM
1:00 AM
2:00 AM
3:00 AM

Best viewing window: 12:00 AM – 2:00 AM. Peak around 12:00 AM with a visibility score of 58/100.

Why this forecast?

There is a moderate chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions are favorable, but clouds, moonlight or geomagnetic activity may still limit visibility.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Portage la Prairie breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity
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Geomagnetic activity

25 / 30

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 5.0) contribution to the score.

25 / 30
Aurora oval probability
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Aurora oval probability

4 / 30

OVATION aurora oval probability (1%) contribution.

4 / 30
Cloud cover
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Cloud cover

6 / 20

Cloud cover (71%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

6 / 20
Darkness
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Darkness

15 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

15 / 15
Moonlight
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Moonlight

1 / 5

Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

1 / 5
Aurora zone
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Aurora zone

+5 pts

Latitude/zone bonus for Portage la Prairie.

+5 pts
Aurora activity 54 / 100
Sky visibility 55 / 100
Final score 51 / 100
✓
Geomagnetic activity 5.0 / 4
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Enough for this location

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Portage la Prairie needs Kp ≥ 4.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Enough for this location

Expected Kp 5.0 reaches the 4 that Portage la Prairie usually needs, so activity is not what limits the night — cloud, darkness and the moon decide the rest.

✓
Cloud cover 7%
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Cloud cover

Clear skies

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Clear skies

Skies are mostly clear, which is favorable for seeing the aurora.

✓
Darkness astronomical
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Sky darkness

Astronomical darkness

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

Astronomical darkness

The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.

×
Moonlight 77%
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Moon illumination

Bright moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Bright moon

Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.

×
Aurora oval probability 1%
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Low

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Low

The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.

✓
Aurora zone Good zone
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Aurora zone

Good zone

How favourable Portage la Prairie's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Good zone

Portage la Prairie is in a good aurora region, where aurora is possible during moderate geomagnetic activity.

Data sources

How this forecast works

3-Day Aurora Forecast for Portage la Prairie

Tonight

Moderate

Max Kp5.0
Cloud Cover71%
Moon77%

12:00 AM–2:00 AM

Tomorrow night

Moderate

Max Kp4.7
Cloud Cover91%
Moon66%

10:00 PM–12:00 AM

In 2 nights

Low

Max Kp2.7
Cloud Cover100%

10:00 PM–2:00 AM

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Portage la Prairie

Save Portage la Prairie in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.

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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Portage la Prairie

Best: September to April Peak: January, February, November and December
September October November December January February March April

The aurora season in Portage la Prairie usually runs from September to April.

Hours of darkness in Portage la Prairie

Dark hours per night
January February March April May June July August September October November December
11.510.28.56.03.20.01.35.07.79.711.211.8

No astronomical darkness: 1 June – 11 July

Other aurora viewing spots near Portage la Prairie

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Steinbach

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Bismarck

North Dakota

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Yorkton

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Regina

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Moose Jaw

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Duluth

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Prince Albert

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Frequently Asked Questions

Can you see the Northern Lights in Portage la Prairie tonight?

Some nights. At 58.6° geomagnetic latitude Portage la Prairie sits outside the quiet oval, so it takes moderate activity — Kp 4 and above — to bring the ring within reach. Cloud and darkness decide the rest.

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Portage la Prairie?

Kp 4. The oval widens about 2° toward the equator with each step up the scale, and Portage la Prairie is roughly 7° outside its quiet edge — which is why a single extra point changes what you see here.

What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Portage la Prairie?

September to April, with November to February giving the most hours of real darkness. The March and September equinoxes carry a statistical tilt toward higher activity — a shift in the odds, not a promise for any one night.

Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Portage la Prairie?

The best places to see the Northern Lights in Portage la Prairie are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.