Aurora Forecast Tonight in Fort McMurray

Aurora season in Fort McMurray runs from September to April.

Tonight's Forecast

High

How we calculate the aurora score

High

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Fort McMurray (region: high_latitude).

With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 2) and 0% cloud cover, there is a good chance of visible aurora at Fort McMurray tonight.

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Good chance tonight. Aurora should be visible wherever the sky is clear and properly dark.

Aurora Score 71 /100

Aurora visibility in Fort McMurray is high tonight. There is a good chance of seeing the Northern Lights if the sky stays clear.

With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 2) and 0% cloud cover, there is a good chance of visible aurora at Fort McMurray tonight.

Max Kp

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

5.0

Strong for this location

Cloud Cover

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Clear skies

Moon

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

77%

Bright moon

OVATION

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Low

🕐

Best Viewing Window

10:00 PM – 2:00 AM

Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.

🧭

Direction to Look

Overhead or north

Min Kp 2 Lat 56.7°

This is a high-latitude location, so aurora may appear overhead or toward the northern sky.

Recommendation

Find a dark location with a clear view to the north and avoid bright city lights for the best chance.

Hour-by-hour visibility

Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Fort McMurray.

10:00 PM

71/100

10:00 PM: 71/100 — high

Max Kp

4.7

Cloud Cover

Moon

77%

OVATION

11:00 PM

71/100

11:00 PM: 71/100 — high

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

Moon

77%

OVATION

12:00 AM

71/100

12:00 AM: 71/100 — high

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

Moon

77%

OVATION

1:00 AM

71/100

1:00 AM: 71/100 — high

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

Moon

77%

OVATION

2:00 AM

71/100

2:00 AM: 71/100 — high

Max Kp

4.0

Cloud Cover

Moon

77%

OVATION

3:00 AM

71/100

3:00 AM: 71/100 — high

Max Kp

4.0

Cloud Cover

Moon

77%

OVATION

10:00 PM

11:00 PM

12:00 AM

1:00 AM

2:00 AM

3:00 AM

Best viewing window: 10:00 PM – 2:00 AM. Peak around 10:00 PM with a visibility score of 71/100.

Why this forecast?

There is a high chance of visible aurora tonight because the main viewing conditions are favorable.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Fort McMurray breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity

30 / 30

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 5.0) contribution to the score.

30 / 30

Aurora oval probability

4 / 30

OVATION aurora oval probability (4%) contribution.

4 / 30

Cloud cover

20 / 20

Cloud cover (0%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

20 / 20

Darkness

15 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

15 / 15

Moonlight

1 / 5

Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

1 / 5

Aurora zone

+5 pts

Latitude/zone bonus for Fort McMurray.

+5 pts

Aurora activity 62 / 100

Sky visibility 90 / 100

Final score 71 / 100

✓

Geomagnetic activity 5.0 / 2

Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Strong for this location

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Fort McMurray needs Kp ≥ 2.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Strong for this location

Expected Kp 5.0 is comfortably above the 2 Fort McMurray usually needs, so the oval should reach well past this latitude if the sky cooperates.

✓

Cloud cover 0%

Cloud cover

Clear skies

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Clear skies

Skies are mostly clear, which is favorable for seeing the aurora.

✓

Darkness astronomical

Sky darkness

Astronomical darkness

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

Astronomical darkness

The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.

Moonlight 77%

Moon illumination

Bright moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Bright moon

Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.

Aurora oval probability 4%

Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Low

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Low

The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.

✓

Aurora zone Good zone

Aurora zone

Good zone

How favourable Fort McMurray's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Good zone

Fort McMurray is in a good aurora region, where aurora is possible during moderate geomagnetic activity.

Data sources

How this forecast works

3-Day Aurora Forecast for Fort McMurray

Tonight

High

Max Kp5.0

Cloud Cover0%

Moon77%

10:00 PM–2:00 AM

Tomorrow night

High

Max Kp4.7

Cloud Cover0%

Moon66%

10:00 PM–12:00 AM

In 2 nights

Moderate

Max Kp2.7

Cloud Cover23%

11:00 PM–3:00 AM

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Fort McMurray

Save Fort McMurray in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.

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Saved locations

Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Fort McMurray

Best: September to April Peak: January, February, October and November

September October November December January February March April

The aurora season in Fort McMurray usually runs from September to April.

Hours of darkness in Fort McMurray

Dark hours per night
January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
12.0	10.2	8.0	4.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	6.8	9.5	11.5	12.3

No astronomical darkness: 2 May – 10 August

Other aurora viewing spots near Fort McMurray

🇨🇦

Grande Prairie

Alberta

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Edmonton

Alberta

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North Battleford

Saskatchewan

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Hay River

Northwest Territories

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Red Deer

Alberta

🇨🇦

Prince Albert

Saskatchewan

🇨🇦

Fort St. John

British Columbia

🇨🇦

Saskatoon

Saskatchewan

🇨🇦

Calgary

Alberta

🇨🇦

Yellowknife

Northwest Territories

Frequently Asked Questions

Can you see the Northern Lights in Fort McMurray tonight?

Some nights. At 63.5° geomagnetic latitude Fort McMurray sits outside the quiet oval, so it takes moderate activity — Kp 2 and above — to bring the ring within reach. Cloud and darkness decide the rest.

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Fort McMurray?

Kp 2. The oval widens about 2° toward the equator with each step up the scale, and Fort McMurray is roughly 2° outside its quiet edge — which is why a single extra point changes what you see here.

What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Fort McMurray?

September to April, with January, February, October, November giving the most hours of real darkness. The March and September equinoxes carry a statistical tilt toward higher activity — a shift in the odds, not a promise for any one night.

Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Fort McMurray?

The best places to see the Northern Lights in Fort McMurray are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.