Aurora Forecast Tonight in Red Deer
Aurora season in Red Deer runs from September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
Moderate
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How we calculate the aurora score
ModerateWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Red Deer (region: high_latitude).
With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 4) and 59% cloud cover, aurora may be visible at Red Deer from a dark spot, once your eyes have adjusted.
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Moderate chance tonight. Aurora may be visible from a dark spot if the sky stays clear.
Aurora visibility in Red Deer is moderate tonight. Northern Lights may be visible if geomagnetic activity holds and local skies remain clear.
With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 4) and 59% cloud cover, aurora may be visible at Red Deer from a dark spot, once your eyes have adjusted.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Enough for this locationKp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
5.0
Enough for this location
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
Partly cloudy25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
44%
Partly cloudy
Moon
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Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
77%
Bright moon
OVATION
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OVATION
LowLess than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
1%
Low
Best Viewing Window
1:00 AM – 3:00 AM
Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.
Direction to Look
Overhead or north
This is a high-latitude location, so aurora may appear overhead or toward the northern sky.
Recommendation
Watch the forecast and be ready to go outside if Kp rises or cloud cover improves.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Red Deer.
12:00 AM
39/10012:00 AM: 39/100 — low
Max Kp
4.3
Cloud Cover
98%
Moon
77%
OVATION
1%
52
1:00 AM
52/1001:00 AM: 52/100 — moderate
Max Kp
4.3
Cloud Cover
34%
Moon
77%
OVATION
1%
52
2:00 AM
52/1002:00 AM: 52/100 — moderate
Max Kp
4.0
Cloud Cover
17%
Moon
77%
OVATION
1%
3:00 AM
39/1003:00 AM: 39/100 — low
Max Kp
4.0
Cloud Cover
81%
Moon
77%
OVATION
1%
4:00 AM
40/1004:00 AM: 40/100 — low
Max Kp
4.0
Cloud Cover
80%
Moon
77%
OVATION
1%
Best viewing window: 1:00 AM – 3:00 AM. Peak around 1:00 AM with a visibility score of 52/100.
Why this forecast?
There is a moderate chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions are favorable, but clouds, moonlight or geomagnetic activity may still limit visibility.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Red Deer breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
25 / 30Geomagnetic activity (Kp 5.0) contribution to the score.
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Aurora oval probability
4 / 30OVATION aurora oval probability (1%) contribution.
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Cloud cover
8 / 20Cloud cover (59%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
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Darkness
15 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
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Aurora zone
+5 ptsLatitude/zone bonus for Red Deer.
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Enough for this locationKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Red Deer needs Kp ≥ 4.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Enough for this location
Expected Kp 5.0 reaches the 4 that Red Deer usually needs, so activity is not what limits the night — cloud, darkness and the moon decide the rest.
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Cloud cover
Partly cloudyAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Partly cloudy
Some clouds are expected, but aurora may still be visible through clear gaps.
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Sky darkness
Astronomical darknessAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Astronomical darkness
The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.
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Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
LowNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Low
The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.
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Aurora zone
Good zoneHow favourable Red Deer's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Good zone
Red Deer is in a good aurora region, where aurora is possible during moderate geomagnetic activity.
3-Day Aurora Forecast for Red Deer
Tonight
Moderate
1:00 AM–3:00 AM
Tomorrow night
Moderate
10:00 PM–12:00 AM
In 2 nights
Low
11:00 PM–3:00 AM
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
Get aurora alerts for Red Deer
Save Red Deer in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.
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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Red Deer
The aurora season in Red Deer usually runs from September to April.
Hours of darkness in Red Deer
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.7 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 12.2 |
No astronomical darkness: 19 May – 24 July
Other aurora viewing spots near Red Deer
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you see the Northern Lights in Red Deer tonight?
Some nights. At 58.9° geomagnetic latitude Red Deer sits outside the quiet oval, so it takes moderate activity — Kp 4 and above — to bring the ring within reach. Cloud and darkness decide the rest.
What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Red Deer?
Kp 4. The oval widens about 2° toward the equator with each step up the scale, and Red Deer is roughly 7° outside its quiet edge — which is why a single extra point changes what you see here.
What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Red Deer?
September to April, with November to February giving the most hours of real darkness. The March and September equinoxes carry a statistical tilt toward higher activity — a shift in the odds, not a promise for any one night.
Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Red Deer?
Red Deer is large enough that its own sky-glow is the main obstacle, so plan on leaving it. Head out away from the lit side until the glow is behind you, and find an open view toward the north — a lake shore, a ridge, anywhere the horizon is not built up. Let your eyes adjust for 20–30 minutes once you are there, and keep the phone screen off.