✦ Aurora Forecast AI

Aurora Forecast Tonight in Newhalen

Aurora season in Newhalen runs from September to April.

Tonight's Forecast

Low

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How we calculate the aurora score

Low

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Newhalen (region: high_latitude).

With current Kp 4.7 (location needs ≥ 4) and 99% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Newhalen, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Low chance tonight. Aurora may be possible only under very favorable local conditions.

Aurora Score 43 /100

Aurora activity may be favorable near Newhalen, but cloud cover could make the Northern Lights difficult or impossible to see.

With current Kp 4.7 (location needs ≥ 4) and 99% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Newhalen, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.

Max Kp

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Max Kp

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

4.7

Enough for this location

Cloud Cover

?

Cloud Cover

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

99%

Overcast

Moon

?

Moon

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

77%

Bright moon

OVATION

?

OVATION

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

4%

Low

🕐

Best Viewing Window

10:00 PM – 12:00 AM

Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.

🧭

Direction to Look

N E S W

Overhead or north

Min Kp 4 Lat 59.0°

This is a high-latitude location, so aurora may appear overhead or toward the northern sky.

Recommendation

Cloud cover is the main problem tonight. Wait for breaks in the clouds before going out.

Hour-by-hour visibility

Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Newhalen.

39

10:00 PM

39/100

10:00 PM: 39/100 — low

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

99%

Moon

77%

OVATION

4%

39

11:00 PM

39/100

11:00 PM: 39/100 — low

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

77%

OVATION

4%

36

12:00 AM

36/100

12:00 AM: 36/100 — low

Max Kp

4.0

Cloud Cover

99%

Moon

77%

OVATION

4%

36

1:00 AM

36/100

1:00 AM: 36/100 — low

Max Kp

4.0

Cloud Cover

98%

Moon

77%

OVATION

4%

10:00 PM
11:00 PM
12:00 AM
1:00 AM

Best viewing window: 10:00 PM – 12:00 AM. Peak around 10:00 PM with a visibility score of 39/100.

Why this forecast?

There is a low chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions may help, but overall the forecast does not strongly support visibility.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Newhalen breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity
?

Geomagnetic activity

22 / 30

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 4.7) contribution to the score.

22 / 30
Aurora oval probability
?

Aurora oval probability

4 / 30

OVATION aurora oval probability (4%) contribution.

4 / 30
Cloud cover
?

Cloud cover

0 / 20

Cloud cover (99%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

0 / 20
Darkness
?

Darkness

15 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

15 / 15
Moonlight
?

Moonlight

1 / 5

Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

1 / 5
Aurora zone
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Aurora zone

+5 pts

Latitude/zone bonus for Newhalen.

+5 pts
Aurora activity 49 / 100
Sky visibility 41 / 100
Final score 43 / 100
✓
Geomagnetic activity 4.7 / 4
?

Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Enough for this location

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Newhalen needs Kp ≥ 4.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Enough for this location

Expected Kp 4.7 reaches the 4 that Newhalen usually needs, so activity is not what limits the night — cloud, darkness and the moon decide the rest.

×
Cloud cover 99%
?

Cloud cover

Overcast

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Overcast

Cloud cover is high tonight, which can block the view even if aurora activity is present.

✓
Darkness astronomical
?

Sky darkness

Astronomical darkness

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

Astronomical darkness

The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.

×
Moonlight 77%
?

Moon illumination

Bright moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Bright moon

Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.

×
Aurora oval probability 4%
?

Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Low

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Low

The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.

✓
Aurora zone Good zone
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Aurora zone

Good zone

How favourable Newhalen's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Good zone

Newhalen is in a good aurora region, where aurora is possible during moderate geomagnetic activity.

Data sources

How this forecast works

3-Day Aurora Forecast for Newhalen

Tonight

Low

Max Kp4.7
Cloud Cover99%
Moon77%

10:00 PM–12:00 AM

Tomorrow night

Low

Max Kp4.7
Cloud Cover100%
Moon66%

10:00 PM–12:00 AM

In 2 nights

Low

Cloud Cover99%

1:00 AM–3:00 AM

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Newhalen

Save Newhalen in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.

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  • Best viewing window
  • Hourly forecast
  • Saved locations
Download Aurora Forecast AI Tracker on the App StoreGet Aurora Forecast AI Tracker on Google Play

Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Newhalen

Best: September to April Peak: January, February, November and December
September October November December January February March April

The aurora season in Newhalen usually runs from September to April.

Hours of darkness in Newhalen

Dark hours per night
January February March April May June July August September October November December
12.010.07.53.50.00.00.00.06.39.311.512.5

No astronomical darkness: 25 April – 18 August

Other aurora viewing spots near Newhalen

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Kokhanok

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Naknek

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Igiugig

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South Naknek

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Iliamna

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Lime Village

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Levelock

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Clark's Point

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Nondalton

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Port Lions

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Frequently Asked Questions

Can you see the Northern Lights in Newhalen tonight?

Some nights. At 58.1° geomagnetic latitude Newhalen sits outside the quiet oval, so it takes moderate activity — Kp 4 and above — to bring the ring within reach. Cloud and darkness decide the rest.

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Newhalen?

Kp 4. The oval widens about 2° toward the equator with each step up the scale, and Newhalen is roughly 8° outside its quiet edge — which is why a single extra point changes what you see here.

What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Newhalen?

September to April, with November to February giving the most hours of real darkness. The March and September equinoxes carry a statistical tilt toward higher activity — a shift in the odds, not a promise for any one night.

Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Newhalen?

You can watch from Newhalen itself. With this few lights around, a garden or the nearest open field is enough, provided nothing blocks the northern horizon. What matters more here is the moon: a bright one washes out faint aurora, so nights near new moon are the ones to pick.