Aurora Forecast Tonight in Karluk
Aurora season in Karluk runs from September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
Low
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How we calculate the aurora score
LowWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Karluk (region: mid_latitude).
With current Kp 2.3 (location needs ≥ 4) and 55% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Karluk, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Low chance tonight. Aurora may be possible only under very favorable local conditions.
Aurora visibility in Karluk is low tonight. A stronger geomagnetic storm or better local conditions would improve the chance of seeing the Northern Lights.
With current Kp 2.3 (location needs ≥ 4) and 55% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Karluk, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Below thresholdKp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
2.3
Below threshold
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
Partly cloudy25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
38%
Partly cloudy
Moon
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Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
86%
Bright moon
OVATION
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OVATION
Moderate5–20% probability — aurora possible.
5%
Moderate
Best Viewing Window
10:00 PM – 12:00 AM
Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.
Direction to Look
North
At this latitude, aurora is usually seen toward the northern horizon.
Recommendation
Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Karluk.
43
10:00 PM
43/10010:00 PM: 43/100 — low
Max Kp
2.3
Moon
86%
OVATION
5%
43
11:00 PM
43/10011:00 PM: 43/100 — low
Max Kp
1.7
Moon
86%
OVATION
5%
12:00 AM
35/10012:00 AM: 35/100 — low
Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
38%
Moon
86%
OVATION
5%
1:00 AM
35/1001:00 AM: 35/100 — low
Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
39%
Moon
86%
OVATION
5%
Best viewing window: 10:00 PM – 12:00 AM. Peak around 10:00 PM with a visibility score of 43/100.
Why this forecast?
There is a low chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions may help, but overall the forecast does not strongly support visibility.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Karluk breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
0 / 40Geomagnetic activity (Kp 2.3) contribution to the score.
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Aurora oval probability
7 / 20OVATION aurora oval probability (5%) contribution.
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Cloud cover
9 / 20Cloud cover (55%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
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Darkness
15 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (86%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Below thresholdKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Karluk needs Kp ≥ 4.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Below threshold
Geomagnetic activity is below the usual visibility threshold for Karluk: expected Kp is 2.3, while this location usually needs around 4.
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Cloud cover
Partly cloudyAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Partly cloudy
Some clouds are expected, but aurora may still be visible through clear gaps.
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Sky darkness
Astronomical darknessAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Astronomical darkness
The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.
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Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 86% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
ModerateNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Moderate
The aurora oval probability is moderate for this location tonight, so activity may be close by if the sky is clear.
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Aurora zone
Fair zoneHow favourable Karluk's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Fair zone
Karluk is in an occasional aurora region, so stronger geomagnetic activity is usually needed.
3-Day Aurora Forecast for Karluk
Tonight
Low
10:00 PM–12:00 AM
Tomorrow night
Moderate
10:00 PM–12:00 AM
In 2 nights
Moderate
10:00 PM–12:00 AM
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
Get aurora alerts for Karluk
Save Karluk in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.
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- Hourly forecast
- Saved locations
Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Karluk
The aurora season in Karluk usually runs from September to April.
Hours of darkness in Karluk
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.0 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 12.5 |
No astronomical darkness: 26 April – 16 August
Other aurora viewing spots near Karluk
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you see the Northern Lights in Karluk tonight?
Only during a storm. Karluk needs Kp 4 or higher before the oval reaches it, and that happens a handful of nights in a year rather than most weeks. Even then it takes a clear sky, real darkness and a dim moon — cloud blocks aurora at any Kp.
What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Karluk?
Karluk lies at 56.7° geomagnetic latitude — roughly 9° south of the quiet oval's edge — so it takes a geomagnetic storm, Kp 4 or higher, before the ring reaches you, low on the northern horizon rather than overhead.
What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Karluk?
September to April, with January, February, October, November the darkest stretch — though at this latitude the season is set by how often a storm reaches you, not by daylight.
Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Karluk?
You can watch from Karluk itself. With this few lights around, a garden or the nearest open field is enough, provided nothing blocks the northern horizon. What matters more here is the moon: a bright one washes out faint aurora, so nights near new moon are the ones to pick.