Aurora Forecast Tonight in Goodnews Bay
Aurora season in Goodnews Bay runs from September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
Low
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How we calculate the aurora score
LowWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Goodnews Bay (region: high_latitude).
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Low chance tonight. Aurora may be possible only under very favorable local conditions.
Aurora visibility in Goodnews Bay is low tonight. A stronger geomagnetic storm or better local conditions would improve the chance of seeing the Northern Lights.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Near thresholdKp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
1.7
Near threshold
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
OvercastOver 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
100%
Overcast
Moon
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Moon
Moderate moonlight25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
60%
Moderate moonlight
OVATION
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OVATION
LowLess than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
2%
Low
Best Viewing Window
11:00 PM – 2:00 AM
This is the best available window, but geomagnetic activity is expected to be low.
Direction to Look
Overhead or north
This is a high-latitude location, so aurora may appear overhead or toward the northern sky.
Recommendation
Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Goodnews Bay.
10:00 PM
17/10010:00 PM: 17/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
60%
OVATION
2%
25
11:00 PM
25/100Max Kp
1.3
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
60%
OVATION
2%
25
12:00 AM
25/100Max Kp
1.3
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
60%
OVATION
2%
25
1:00 AM
25/100Max Kp
1.3
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
60%
OVATION
2%
2:00 AM
21/100Max Kp
1.0
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
60%
OVATION
2%
3:00 AM
21/100Max Kp
1.0
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
60%
OVATION
2%
Best viewing window: 11:00 PM – 2:00 AM. Peak around 11:00 PM with a visibility score of 25/100.
Why this forecast?
There is a low chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions may help, but overall the forecast does not strongly support visibility.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Goodnews Bay breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
7 / 30Geomagnetic activity (Kp 1.7) contribution to the score.
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Aurora oval probability
4 / 30OVATION aurora oval probability (2%) contribution.
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Cloud cover
0 / 20Cloud cover (100%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
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Darkness
15 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
2 / 5Moon illumination (60%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
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Aurora zone
+5 ptsLatitude/zone bonus for Goodnews Bay.
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Near thresholdKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Goodnews Bay needs Kp ≥ 2.5.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Near threshold
Geomagnetic activity is only marginal for Goodnews Bay: expected Kp is 1.7, while this location usually needs around 2.5.
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Cloud cover
OvercastAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Overcast
Cloud cover is high tonight, which can block the view even if aurora activity is present.
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Sky darkness
Astronomical darknessAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Astronomical darkness
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Moon illumination
Moderate moonlightA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Moderate moonlight
Moonlight is moderate tonight and may slightly reduce aurora visibility.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
LowNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Low
The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.
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Aurora zone
Good zoneHow favourable Goodnews Bay's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Good zone
Goodnews Bay is in a good aurora region, where aurora is possible during moderate geomagnetic activity.
Data sources
- · NOAA SWPC Kp forecast
- · NOAA OVATION aurora model
- · Open-Meteo cloud forecast
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Goodnews Bay
The aurora season in Goodnews Bay usually runs from September to April.
Goodnews Bay sits at 61.36° magnetic latitude, which means aurora typically becomes visible when the Kp index reaches 2.5+. This high-latitude location offers frequent displays during active solar periods. The best time to visit for optimal darkness is generally between September and April.