Aurora Forecast Tonight in Gothenburg
Aurora season in Gothenburg runs from September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
Unlikely
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How we calculate the aurora score
UnlikelyWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Gothenburg (region: mid_latitude).
With current Kp 2.0 (location needs ≥ 5.5) and 88% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Gothenburg.
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Aurora viewing is unlikely tonight.
Aurora visibility in Gothenburg is unlikely tonight. Current conditions do not strongly support visible Northern Lights.
With current Kp 2.0 (location needs ≥ 5.5) and 88% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Gothenburg.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Below thresholdKp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
2.0
Below threshold
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
Cloudy50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
70%
Cloudy
Moon
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Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
80%
Bright moon
OVATION
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OVATION
LowLess than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
0%
Low
Best Viewing Window
12:00 AM – 2:00 AM
This is the best available window, but geomagnetic activity is expected to be low.
Direction to Look
North
At this latitude, aurora is usually seen toward the northern horizon.
Recommendation
Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Gothenburg.
11:00 PM
17/10011:00 PM: 17/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
2.0
Cloud Cover
96%
Moon
80%
OVATION
0%
21
12:00 AM
21/100Max Kp
2.0
Cloud Cover
74%
Moon
80%
OVATION
0%
27
1:00 AM
27/100Max Kp
2.0
Cloud Cover
44%
Moon
80%
OVATION
0%
2:00 AM
18/1002:00 AM: 18/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
2.0
Cloud Cover
92%
Moon
80%
OVATION
0%
3:00 AM
19/1003:00 AM: 19/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
2.0
Cloud Cover
83%
Moon
80%
OVATION
0%
Best viewing window: 12:00 AM – 2:00 AM. Peak around 1:00 AM with a visibility score of 27/100.
Why this forecast?
The forecast is unlikely because one or more key conditions are not favorable for visible aurora tonight.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Gothenburg breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
0 / 40Geomagnetic activity (Kp 2.0) contribution to the score.
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Aurora oval probability
0 / 20OVATION aurora oval probability (0%) contribution.
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Cloud cover
2 / 20Cloud cover (88%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
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Darkness
15 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (80%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Below thresholdKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Gothenburg needs Kp ≥ 5.5.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Below threshold
Geomagnetic activity is below the usual visibility threshold for Gothenburg: expected Kp is 2.0, while this location usually needs around 5.5.
?
Cloud cover
CloudyAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Cloudy
Cloud cover is high tonight, which can block the view even if aurora activity is present.
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Sky darkness
Astronomical darknessAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Astronomical darkness
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Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 80% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
LowNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Low
The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.
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Aurora zone
Fair zoneHow favourable Gothenburg's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Fair zone
Gothenburg is in an occasional aurora region, so stronger geomagnetic activity is usually needed.
Data sources
- · NOAA SWPC Kp forecast
- · NOAA OVATION aurora model
- · Open-Meteo cloud forecast
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
Get aurora alerts for Gothenburg
Save Gothenburg in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.
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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Gothenburg
The aurora season in Gothenburg usually runs from September to March.
Drive away from city lights and look toward the northern horizon. Aurora visibility usually requires stronger geomagnetic activity around Kp 5.5 or higher.