✦ Aurora Forecast AI

Aurora Forecast Tonight in Elsinore

Aurora season in Elsinore runs from September to April.

Tonight's Forecast

Moderate

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How we calculate the aurora score

Moderate

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Elsinore (region: mid_latitude).

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Aurora Score 55 /100

Aurora visibility in Elsinore is moderate tonight. Northern Lights may be visible if geomagnetic activity holds and local skies remain clear.

Max Kp

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Max Kp

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

5.7

Enough for this location

Cloud Cover

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Cloud Cover

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

41%

Partly cloudy

Moon

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Moon

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

4%

Dark moon

OVATION

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OVATION

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

0%

Low

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Best Viewing Window

11:00 PM – 1:00 AM

Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.

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Direction to Look

N E S W

North

Min Kp 5.5 Lat 56.0°

At this latitude, aurora is usually seen toward the northern horizon.

Recommendation

Watch the forecast and be ready to go outside if Kp rises or cloud cover improves.

Hour-by-hour visibility

Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Elsinore.

45

10:00 PM

45/100

Max Kp

5.7

Cloud Cover

85%

Moon

4%

OVATION

0%

50

11:00 PM

50/100

Max Kp

5.7

Cloud Cover

59%

Moon

4%

OVATION

0%

51

12:00 AM

51/100

Max Kp

5.7

Cloud Cover

55%

Moon

4%

OVATION

0%

38

1:00 AM

38/100

Max Kp

3.0

Cloud Cover

11%

Moon

4%

OVATION

0%

36

2:00 AM

36/100

Max Kp

3.0

Cloud Cover

17%

Moon

4%

OVATION

0%

10:00 PM
11:00 PM
12:00 AM
1:00 AM
2:00 AM

Best viewing window: 11:00 PM – 1:00 AM. Peak around 12:00 AM with a visibility score of 51/100.

Why this forecast?

There is a moderate chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions are favorable, but clouds, moonlight or geomagnetic activity may still limit visibility.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Elsinore breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity
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Geomagnetic activity

22 / 40

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 5.7) contribution to the score.

22 / 40
Aurora oval probability
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Aurora oval probability

0 / 20

OVATION aurora oval probability (0%) contribution.

0 / 20
Cloud cover
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Cloud cover

13 / 20

Cloud cover (37%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

13 / 20
Darkness
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Darkness

15 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

15 / 15
Moonlight
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Moonlight

5 / 5

Moon illumination (4%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

5 / 5
Aurora activity 37 / 100
Sky visibility 81 / 100
Final score 55 / 100
✓
Geomagnetic activity 5.7 / 5.5
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Enough for this location

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Elsinore needs Kp ≥ 5.5.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Enough for this location

Geomagnetic activity is only marginal for Elsinore: expected Kp is 5.7, while this location usually needs around 5.5.

•
Cloud cover 41%
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Cloud cover

Partly cloudy

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Partly cloudy

Some clouds are expected, but aurora may still be visible through clear gaps.

✓
Darkness astronomical
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Sky darkness

Astronomical darkness

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

Astronomical darkness

✓
Moonlight 4%
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Moon illumination

Dark moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Dark moon

×
Aurora oval probability 0%
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Low

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Low

The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.

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Aurora zone Fair zone
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Aurora zone

Fair zone

How favourable Elsinore's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Fair zone

Elsinore is in an occasional aurora region, so stronger geomagnetic activity is usually needed.

Data sources

  • · NOAA SWPC Kp forecast
  • · NOAA OVATION aurora model
  • · Open-Meteo cloud forecast

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Elsinore

Save Elsinore in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.

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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Elsinore

Best: September to April Peak: January, February, November and December
September October November December January February March April

The aurora season in Elsinore usually runs from September to April.

Drive away from city lights and look toward the northern horizon. Aurora visibility usually requires stronger geomagnetic activity around Kp 5.5 or higher.

Other aurora viewing spots near Elsinore

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Frequently Asked Questions

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Elsinore?
In Elsinore, a Kp index around 5.5+ usually gives a realistic chance of visible aurora, depending on darkness, clouds, and light pollution.
What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Elsinore?
The best months to see the Northern Lights in Elsinore are typically September to April, when nights are darker and aurora viewing conditions are better.
Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Elsinore?
The best places to see the Northern Lights in Elsinore are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.