Aurora Forecast Tonight in Point Lay

Aurora season in Point Lay runs from August to April.

Tonight's Forecast

Unlikely

How we calculate the aurora score

Unlikely

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Point Lay (region: auroral_oval).

With current Kp 1.3 (location needs ≥ 1) and 99% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Point Lay.

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Aurora viewing is unlikely tonight.

Aurora Score 3 /100

Aurora activity may be favorable near Point Lay, but cloud cover could make the Northern Lights difficult or impossible to see.

With current Kp 1.3 (location needs ≥ 1) and 99% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Point Lay.

Max Kp

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

1.3

Enough for this location

Cloud Cover

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

100%

Overcast

Moon

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

80%

Bright moon

OVATION

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Low

🕐

Best Viewing Window

1:00 AM – 5:00 AM

This is the best available window, but geomagnetic activity is expected to be low.

8/100

4:00 AM: 8/100 — unlikely

Max Kp

1.3

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

80%

OVATION

12:00 AM

1:00 AM

2:00 AM

3:00 AM

4:00 AM

Best viewing window: 1:00 AM – 5:00 AM. Peak around 1:00 AM with a visibility score of 8/100.

Why this forecast?

The forecast is unlikely because one or more key conditions are not favorable for visible aurora tonight.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Point Lay breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity

18 / 30

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 1.3) contribution to the score.

18 / 30

Aurora oval probability

4 / 30

OVATION aurora oval probability (2%) contribution.

4 / 30

Cloud cover

0 / 20

Cloud cover (99%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

0 / 20

Darkness

4 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

4 / 15

Moonlight

1 / 5

Moon illumination (80%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

1 / 5

Aurora zone

+10 pts

Latitude/zone bonus for Point Lay.

+10 pts

Aurora activity 48 / 100

Sky visibility 6 / 100

Final score 3 / 100

✓

Geomagnetic activity 1.3 / 1

Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Enough for this location

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Point Lay needs Kp ≥ 1.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Enough for this location

Geomagnetic activity is only marginal for Point Lay: expected Kp is 1.3, while this location usually needs around 1.

Cloud cover 100%

Cloud cover

Overcast

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Overcast

Cloud cover is high tonight, which can block the view even if aurora activity is present.

Darkness Civil twilight

Sky darkness

Civil twilight

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

Civil twilight

There is only civil twilight tonight. The sky may still be too bright for faint aurora, although stronger displays could still be visible.

Moonlight 80%

Moon illumination

Bright moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Bright moon

Moon is 80% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.

Aurora oval probability 2%

Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Low

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Low

The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.

✓

Aurora zone Excellent zone

Aurora zone

Excellent zone

How favourable Point Lay's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Excellent zone

Point Lay is in a prime aurora zone, so aurora can be visible during regular activity when skies are dark and clear.

Data sources

· NOAA SWPC Kp forecast
· NOAA OVATION aurora model
· Open-Meteo cloud forecast

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Point Lay

Save Point Lay in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.

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Best viewing window
Hourly forecast
Saved locations

Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Point Lay

Best: August to April Peak: January, February, March, October, November and December

August September October November December January February March April

The aurora season in Point Lay usually runs from August to April.

Point Lay is located in the auroral oval region, which means auroras can often become visible when the Kp index reaches around 1 or higher. The best chances usually come during the darkest months of the season, with clear skies and low light pollution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Point Lay?

In Point Lay, a Kp index around 1+ usually gives a realistic chance of visible aurora, depending on darkness, clouds, and light pollution.

What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Point Lay?

The best months to see the Northern Lights in Point Lay are typically August to April, when nights are darker and aurora viewing conditions are better.

Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Point Lay?

The best places to see the Northern Lights in Point Lay are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.