Aurora Forecast Tonight in Nikolai

Aurora season in Nikolai runs from September to April.

Tonight's Forecast

Moderate

How we calculate the aurora score

Moderate

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Nikolai (region: high_latitude).

With current Kp 4.7 (location needs ≥ 3) and 98% cloud cover, aurora may be visible at Nikolai from a dark spot, once your eyes have adjusted.

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Moderate chance tonight. Aurora may be visible from a dark spot if the sky stays clear.

Aurora Score 57 /100

Aurora activity may be favorable near Nikolai, but cloud cover could make the Northern Lights difficult or impossible to see.

With current Kp 4.7 (location needs ≥ 3) and 98% cloud cover, aurora may be visible at Nikolai from a dark spot, once your eyes have adjusted.

Max Kp

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

4.7

Enough for this location

Cloud Cover

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

95%

Overcast

Moon

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

77%

Bright moon

OVATION

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

13%

Moderate

🕐

Best Viewing Window

10:00 PM – 12:00 AM

Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.

🧭

Direction to Look

Overhead or north

Min Kp 3 Lat 63.0°

This is a high-latitude location, so aurora may appear overhead or toward the northern sky.

Recommendation

Cloud cover is the main problem tonight. Wait for breaks in the clouds before going out.

Hour-by-hour visibility

Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Nikolai.

10:00 PM

55/100

10:00 PM: 55/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

77%

OVATION

13%

11:00 PM

55/100

11:00 PM: 55/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.3

Cloud Cover

99%

Moon

77%

OVATION

13%

12:00 AM

54/100

12:00 AM: 54/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.0

Cloud Cover

88%

Moon

77%

OVATION

13%

1:00 AM

53/100

1:00 AM: 53/100 — moderate

Max Kp

4.0

Cloud Cover

92%

Moon

77%

OVATION

13%

10:00 PM

11:00 PM

12:00 AM

1:00 AM

Best viewing window: 10:00 PM – 12:00 AM. Peak around 10:00 PM with a visibility score of 55/100.

Why this forecast?

There is a moderate chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions are favorable, but clouds, moonlight or geomagnetic activity may still limit visibility.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Nikolai breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity

30 / 30

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 4.7) contribution to the score.

30 / 30

Aurora oval probability

10 / 30

OVATION aurora oval probability (13%) contribution.

10 / 30

Cloud cover

0 / 20

Cloud cover (98%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

0 / 20

Darkness

15 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

15 / 15

Moonlight

1 / 5

Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

1 / 5

Aurora zone

+5 pts

Latitude/zone bonus for Nikolai.

+5 pts

Aurora activity 73 / 100

Sky visibility 41 / 100

Final score 57 / 100

✓

Geomagnetic activity 4.7 / 3

Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Enough for this location

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Nikolai needs Kp ≥ 3.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Enough for this location

Expected Kp 4.7 reaches the 3 that Nikolai usually needs, so activity is not what limits the night — cloud, darkness and the moon decide the rest.

Cloud cover 95%

Cloud cover

Overcast

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Overcast

Cloud cover is high tonight, which can block the view even if aurora activity is present.

✓

Darkness astronomical

Sky darkness

Astronomical darkness

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

Astronomical darkness

The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.

Moonlight 77%

Moon illumination

Bright moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Bright moon

Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.

•

Aurora oval probability 13%

Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Moderate

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Moderate

The aurora oval probability is moderate for this location tonight, so activity may be close by if the sky is clear.

✓

Aurora zone Good zone

Aurora zone

Good zone

How favourable Nikolai's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Good zone

Nikolai is in a good aurora region, where aurora is possible during moderate geomagnetic activity.

Data sources

How this forecast works

3-Day Aurora Forecast for Nikolai

Tonight

Moderate

Max Kp4.7

Cloud Cover98%

Moon77%

10:00 PM–12:00 AM

Tomorrow night

Moderate

Max Kp4.7

Cloud Cover100%

Moon66%

10:00 PM–12:00 AM

In 2 nights

Low

Cloud Cover78%

12:00 AM–2:00 AM

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Nikolai

Save Nikolai in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.

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Best viewing window
Hourly forecast
Saved locations

Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Nikolai

Best: September to April Peak: January, February, November and December

September October November December January February March April

The aurora season in Nikolai usually runs from September to April.

Hours of darkness in Nikolai

Dark hours per night
January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
12.2	9.8	7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.2	9.0	11.5	12.8

No astronomical darkness: 13 April – 29 August

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Frequently Asked Questions

Can you see the Northern Lights in Nikolai tonight?

Some nights. At 61.6° geomagnetic latitude Nikolai sits outside the quiet oval, so it takes moderate activity — Kp 3 and above — to bring the ring within reach. Cloud and darkness decide the rest.

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Nikolai?

Kp 3. The oval widens about 2° toward the equator with each step up the scale, and Nikolai is roughly 4° outside its quiet edge — which is why a single extra point changes what you see here.

What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Nikolai?

September to April, with November to February giving the most hours of real darkness. The March and September equinoxes carry a statistical tilt toward higher activity — a shift in the odds, not a promise for any one night.

Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Nikolai?

You can watch from Nikolai itself. With this few lights around, a garden or the nearest open field is enough, provided nothing blocks the northern horizon. What matters more here is the moon: a bright one washes out faint aurora, so nights near new moon are the ones to pick.