Aurora Forecast Tonight in Umea
Aurora season in Umea runs from September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
High
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How we calculate the aurora score
HighWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Umea (region: high_latitude).
With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 3) and 8% cloud cover, there is a good chance of visible aurora at Umea tonight.
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Good chance tonight. Aurora should be visible wherever the sky is clear and properly dark.
Aurora visibility in Umea is high tonight. There is a good chance of seeing the Northern Lights if the sky stays clear.
With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 3) and 8% cloud cover, there is a good chance of visible aurora at Umea tonight.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Strong for this locationKp is comfortably above the local threshold.
5.0
Strong for this location
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
Clear skiesUp to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
6%
Clear skies
Moon
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Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
77%
Bright moon
OVATION
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OVATION
Moderate5–20% probability — aurora possible.
5%
Moderate
Best Viewing Window
12:00 AM – 2:00 AM
Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.
Direction to Look
Overhead or north
This is a high-latitude location, so aurora may appear overhead or toward the northern sky.
Recommendation
Find a dark location with a clear view to the north and avoid bright city lights for the best chance.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Umea.
11:00 PM
68/10011:00 PM: 68/100 — high
Max Kp
3.7
Cloud Cover
2%
Moon
77%
OVATION
5%
76
12:00 AM
76/10012:00 AM: 76/100 — high
Max Kp
5.0
Cloud Cover
2%
Moon
77%
OVATION
5%
76
1:00 AM
76/1001:00 AM: 76/100 — high
Max Kp
5.0
Cloud Cover
5%
Moon
77%
OVATION
5%
2:00 AM
74/1002:00 AM: 74/100 — high
Max Kp
5.0
Cloud Cover
11%
Moon
77%
OVATION
5%
3:00 AM
75/1003:00 AM: 75/100 — high
Max Kp
4.7
Cloud Cover
10%
Moon
77%
OVATION
5%
Best viewing window: 12:00 AM – 2:00 AM. Peak around 12:00 AM with a visibility score of 76/100.
Why this forecast?
There is a high chance of visible aurora tonight because the main viewing conditions are favorable.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Umea breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
30 / 30Geomagnetic activity (Kp 5.0) contribution to the score.
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Aurora oval probability
10 / 30OVATION aurora oval probability (5%) contribution.
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Cloud cover
18 / 20Cloud cover (8%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
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Darkness
15 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
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Aurora zone
+5 ptsLatitude/zone bonus for Umea.
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Strong for this locationKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Umea needs Kp ≥ 3.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Strong for this location
Expected Kp 5.0 is comfortably above the 3 Umea usually needs, so the oval should reach well past this latitude if the sky cooperates.
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Cloud cover
Clear skiesAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Clear skies
Skies are mostly clear, which is favorable for seeing the aurora.
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Sky darkness
Astronomical darknessAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Astronomical darkness
The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.
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Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
ModerateNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Moderate
The aurora oval probability is moderate for this location tonight, so activity may be close by if the sky is clear.
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Aurora zone
Good zoneHow favourable Umea's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Good zone
Umea is in a good aurora region, where aurora is possible during moderate geomagnetic activity.
3-Day Aurora Forecast for Umea
Tonight
High
12:00 AM–2:00 AM
Tomorrow night
Moderate
3:00 AM–5:00 AM
In 2 nights
High
10:00 PM–12:00 AM
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Umea
The aurora season in Umea usually runs from September to April.
Hours of darkness in Umea
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.2 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 12.8 |
No astronomical darkness: 11 April – 1 September
Other aurora viewing spots near Umea
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you see the Northern Lights in Umea tonight?
Some nights. At 61.2° geomagnetic latitude Umea sits outside the quiet oval, so it takes moderate activity — Kp 3 and above — to bring the ring within reach. Cloud and darkness decide the rest.
What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Umea?
Kp 3. The oval widens about 2° toward the equator with each step up the scale, and Umea is roughly 5° outside its quiet edge — which is why a single extra point changes what you see here.
What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Umea?
September to April, with January, February, October, November giving the most hours of real darkness. The March and September equinoxes carry a statistical tilt toward higher activity — a shift in the odds, not a promise for any one night.
Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Umea?
The best places to see the Northern Lights in Umea are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.