Aurora Forecast Tonight in Toledo
Toledo: the aurora season runs September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
Unlikely
?
How we calculate the aurora score
UnlikelyWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Toledo (region: rare).
With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 9) and 20% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Toledo.
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Aurora viewing is unlikely tonight.
Skies may be clear in Toledo, but aurora activity is currently too weak for a good viewing chance.
With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 9) and 20% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Toledo.
Max Kp
?
Max Kp
Below thresholdKp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
5.0
Below threshold
Cloud Cover
?
Cloud Cover
Clear skiesUp to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
0%
Clear skies
Moon
?
Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
77%
Bright moon
OVATION
?
OVATION
LowLess than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
0%
Low
Best Viewing Window
3:00 AM – 5:00 AM
Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.
Direction to Look
North
Aurora is rare at this latitude and usually requires a strong geomagnetic storm. Look toward the northern horizon.
Recommendation
Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Toledo.
2:00 AM
35/1002:00 AM: 35/100 — low
Max Kp
5.0
Cloud Cover
5%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
36
3:00 AM
36/1003:00 AM: 36/100 — low
Max Kp
4.7
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
36
4:00 AM
36/1004:00 AM: 36/100 — low
Max Kp
4.7
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
Best viewing window: 3:00 AM – 5:00 AM. Peak around 3:00 AM with a visibility score of 36/100.
Why this forecast?
The forecast is unlikely because one or more key conditions are not favorable for visible aurora tonight.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Toledo breaks down into activity and visibility components.
?
Geomagnetic activity
0 / 45Geomagnetic activity (Kp 5.0) contribution to the score.
?
Aurora oval probability
0 / 15OVATION aurora oval probability (0%) contribution.
?
Cloud cover
16 / 20Cloud cover (20%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
?
Darkness
15 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
?
Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
?
Aurora zone
-5 ptsLatitude/zone bonus for Toledo.
?
Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Below thresholdKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Toledo needs Kp ≥ 9.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Below threshold
Geomagnetic activity is below the usual visibility threshold for Toledo: expected Kp is 5.0, while this location usually needs around 9.
?
Cloud cover
Clear skiesAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Clear skies
Skies are mostly clear, which is favorable for seeing the aurora.
?
Sky darkness
Astronomical darknessAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Astronomical darkness
The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.
?
Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
?
Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
LowNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Low
The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.
?
Aurora zone
Low zoneHow favourable Toledo's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Low zone
Toledo is outside the main aurora zone, so visible aurora usually requires a strong geomagnetic storm.
3-Day Aurora Forecast for Toledo
Tonight
Unlikely
3:00 AM–5:00 AM
Tomorrow night
Unlikely
11:00 PM–1:00 AM
In 2 nights
Unlikely
10:00 PM–2:00 AM
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
Get aurora alerts for Toledo
Save Toledo in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.
- Smart aurora alerts
- Best viewing window
- Hourly forecast
- Saved locations
Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Toledo
The aurora season in Toledo usually runs from September to April.
Hours of darkness in Toledo
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.2 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 11.5 |
Other aurora viewing spots near Toledo
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you see the Northern Lights in Toledo tonight?
Almost never. Storms big enough to reach Toledo are the rarest on NOAA's scale. The realistic answer is to set an alert rather than to watch the forecast, and to expect a low red glow rather than the moving curtains of the north.
What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Toledo?
Aurora is not something Toledo sees in a normal year. At 32.6° geomagnetic latitude it takes one of the strongest storms on the scale, Kp 9, and even then it shows as a low red glow rather than the moving curtains of the north. Storms at the top of the scale are the rarest there are.
What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Toledo?
The best months to see the Northern Lights in Toledo are typically September to April, when nights are darker and aurora viewing conditions are better.
Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Toledo?
The best places to see the Northern Lights in Toledo are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.