✦ Aurora Forecast AI

Aurora Forecast Tonight in Mielec

Mielec: the aurora season runs September to April.

Tonight's Forecast

Low

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How we calculate the aurora score

Low

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Mielec (region: low_latitude).

With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 6) and 99% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Mielec, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Low chance tonight. Aurora may be possible only under very favorable local conditions.

Aurora Score 24 /100

Aurora visibility in Mielec is low tonight. A stronger geomagnetic storm or better local conditions would improve the chance of seeing the Northern Lights.

With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 6) and 99% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Mielec, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.

Max Kp

?

Max Kp

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

5.0

Near threshold

Cloud Cover

?

Cloud Cover

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

100%

Overcast

Moon

?

Moon

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

77%

Bright moon

OVATION

?

OVATION

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

0%

Low

🕐

Best Viewing Window

12:00 AM – 3:00 AM

This is the best available window, but geomagnetic activity is expected to be low.

🧭

Direction to Look

N E S W

North

Min Kp 6 Lat 50.3°

This location is farther from the auroral oval, so aurora is most likely to appear low on the northern horizon during strong activity.

Recommendation

Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.

Hour-by-hour visibility

Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Mielec.

16

11:00 PM

16/100

11:00 PM: 16/100 — unlikely

Max Kp

3.7

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

77%

OVATION

0%

24

12:00 AM

24/100

12:00 AM: 24/100 — low

Max Kp

5.0

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

77%

OVATION

0%

24

1:00 AM

24/100

1:00 AM: 24/100 — low

Max Kp

5.0

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

77%

OVATION

0%

24

2:00 AM

24/100

2:00 AM: 24/100 — low

Max Kp

5.0

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

77%

OVATION

0%

19

3:00 AM

19/100

3:00 AM: 19/100 — unlikely

Max Kp

4.7

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

77%

OVATION

0%

19

4:00 AM

19/100

4:00 AM: 19/100 — unlikely

Max Kp

4.7

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

77%

OVATION

0%

11:00 PM
12:00 AM
1:00 AM
2:00 AM
3:00 AM
4:00 AM

Best viewing window: 12:00 AM – 3:00 AM. Peak around 12:00 AM with a visibility score of 24/100.

Why this forecast?

There is a low chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions may help, but overall the forecast does not strongly support visibility.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Mielec breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity
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Geomagnetic activity

8 / 45

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 5.0) contribution to the score.

8 / 45
Aurora oval probability
?

Aurora oval probability

0 / 15

OVATION aurora oval probability (0%) contribution.

0 / 15
Cloud cover
?

Cloud cover

0 / 20

Cloud cover (99%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

0 / 20
Darkness
?

Darkness

15 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

15 / 15
Moonlight
?

Moonlight

1 / 5

Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

1 / 5
Aurora zone
?

Aurora zone

-5 pts

Latitude/zone bonus for Mielec.

-5 pts
Aurora activity 7 / 100
Sky visibility 41 / 100
Final score 24 / 100
•
Geomagnetic activity 5.0 / 6
?

Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Near threshold

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Mielec needs Kp ≥ 6.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Near threshold

Geomagnetic activity is close to the threshold for Mielec: expected Kp is 5.0, and this location usually needs around 6. A faint aurora low on the horizon is possible.

×
Cloud cover 100%
?

Cloud cover

Overcast

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Overcast

Cloud cover is high tonight, which can block the view even if aurora activity is present.

✓
Darkness astronomical
?

Sky darkness

Astronomical darkness

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

Astronomical darkness

The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.

×
Moonlight 77%
?

Moon illumination

Bright moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Bright moon

Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.

×
Aurora oval probability 0%
?

Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Low

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Low

The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.

×
Aurora zone Low zone
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Aurora zone

Low zone

How favourable Mielec's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Low zone

Mielec is outside the main aurora zone, so visible aurora usually requires a strong geomagnetic storm.

Data sources

How this forecast works

3-Day Aurora Forecast for Mielec

Tonight

Low

Max Kp5.0
Cloud Cover99%
Moon77%

12:00 AM–3:00 AM

Tomorrow night

Low

Max Kp4.7
Cloud Cover95%
Moon66%

3:00 AM–5:00 AM

In 2 nights

Unlikely

Max Kp3.7
Cloud Cover92%

11:00 PM–1:00 AM

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Mielec

Save Mielec in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.

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  • Saved locations
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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Mielec

Best: September to April Peak: January, February, November and December
September October November December January February March April

The aurora season in Mielec usually runs from September to April.

Hours of darkness in Mielec

Dark hours per night
January February March April May June July August September October November December
11.710.28.56.03.00.00.75.07.59.511.211.8

No astronomical darkness: 30 May – 14 July

Other aurora viewing spots near Mielec

🇵🇱

Rzeszow

Subcarpathian

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Busko-Zdrój

Świętokrzyskie

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Stalowa Wola

Subcarpathian

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Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski

Świętokrzyskie

🇵🇱

Kielce

Świętokrzyskie

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Krakow

Lesser Poland

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Przemyśl

Subcarpathian

🇵🇱

Włoszczowa

Świętokrzyskie

🇵🇱

Radom

Masovian

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Lublin

Frequently Asked Questions

Can you see the Northern Lights in Mielec tonight?

Rarely. Mielec is far enough from the pole that it takes Kp 6 or more, storm levels, before the ring stretches this far. When it does, expect a faint glow low on the northern horizon rather than anything overhead — and a clear sky, or none of it matters.

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Mielec?

Aurora is rare this far from the pole. Mielec sits at 46.5° geomagnetic latitude, about 20° south of the quiet oval, and needs Kp 6 or more before the ring stretches far enough — storm levels, not an ordinary night. When it does happen it is usually a faint glow low in the north, often clearer in a photograph than to the eye.

What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Mielec?

The best months to see the Northern Lights in Mielec are typically September to April, when nights are darker and aurora viewing conditions are better.

Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Mielec?

The best places to see the Northern Lights in Mielec are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.