Aurora Forecast Tonight in Happy Valley-Goose Bay
Aurora season in Happy Valley-Goose Bay runs from September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
Low
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How we calculate the aurora score
LowWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Happy Valley-Goose Bay (region: high_latitude).
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Low chance tonight. Aurora may be possible only under very favorable local conditions.
Skies may be clear in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, but aurora activity is currently too weak for a good viewing chance.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Near thresholdKp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
2.0
Near threshold
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
Clear skiesUp to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
4%
Clear skies
Moon
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Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
80%
Bright moon
OVATION
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OVATION
Moderate5–20% probability — aurora possible.
11%
Moderate
Best Viewing Window
10:00 PM – 12:00 AM
Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.
Direction to Look
Overhead or north
This is a high-latitude location, so aurora may appear overhead or toward the northern sky.
Recommendation
Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Happy Valley-Goose Bay.
52
10:00 PM
52/100Max Kp
2.0
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
80%
OVATION
11%
48
11:00 PM
48/100Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
1%
Moon
80%
OVATION
11%
12:00 AM
46/100Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
13%
Moon
80%
OVATION
11%
1:00 AM
45/100Max Kp
1.7
Cloud Cover
14%
Moon
80%
OVATION
11%
Best viewing window: 10:00 PM – 12:00 AM. Peak around 10:00 PM with a visibility score of 52/100.
Why this forecast?
There is a low chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions may help, but overall the forecast does not strongly support visibility.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Happy Valley-Goose Bay breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
5 / 30Geomagnetic activity (Kp 2.0) contribution to the score.
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Aurora oval probability
10 / 30OVATION aurora oval probability (11%) contribution.
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Cloud cover
16 / 20Cloud cover (18%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
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Darkness
15 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (80%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
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Aurora zone
+5 ptsLatitude/zone bonus for Happy Valley-Goose Bay.
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Near thresholdKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Happy Valley-Goose Bay needs Kp ≥ 3.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Near threshold
Geomagnetic activity is only marginal for Happy Valley-Goose Bay: expected Kp is 2.0, while this location usually needs around 3.
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Cloud cover
Clear skiesAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Clear skies
Skies are mostly clear, which is favorable for seeing the aurora.
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Sky darkness
Astronomical darknessAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Astronomical darkness
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Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 80% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
ModerateNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Moderate
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Aurora zone
Good zoneHow favourable Happy Valley-Goose Bay's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Good zone
Happy Valley-Goose Bay is in a good aurora region, where aurora is possible during moderate geomagnetic activity.
Data sources
- · NOAA SWPC Kp forecast
- · NOAA OVATION aurora model
- · Open-Meteo cloud forecast
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Happy Valley-Goose Bay
The aurora season in Happy Valley-Goose Bay usually runs from September to April.
Happy Valley-Goose Bay sits at 61.5° magnetic latitude, which means aurora typically becomes visible when the Kp index reaches 3.0+. As a high-latitude location, displays are frequent during peak solar activity. The best time to visit for dark skies is generally between September and April.