Aurora Forecast Tonight in Fredericton
Aurora season in Fredericton runs from September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
Low
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How we calculate the aurora score
LowWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Fredericton (region: mid_latitude).
With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 5) and 59% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Fredericton, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Low chance tonight. Aurora may be possible only under very favorable local conditions.
Aurora visibility in Fredericton is low tonight. A stronger geomagnetic storm or better local conditions would improve the chance of seeing the Northern Lights.
With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 5) and 59% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Fredericton, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Enough for this locationKp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
5.0
Enough for this location
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
Clear skiesUp to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
16%
Clear skies
Moon
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Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
77%
Bright moon
OVATION
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OVATION
LowLess than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
0%
Low
Best Viewing Window
3:00 AM – 5:00 AM
Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.
Direction to Look
North
At this latitude, aurora is usually seen toward the northern horizon.
Recommendation
Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Fredericton.
2:00 AM
27/1002:00 AM: 27/100 — low
Max Kp
4.3
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
41
3:00 AM
41/1003:00 AM: 41/100 — low
Max Kp
4.3
Cloud Cover
30%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
44
4:00 AM
44/1004:00 AM: 44/100 — low
Max Kp
4.3
Cloud Cover
15%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
Best viewing window: 3:00 AM – 5:00 AM. Peak around 4:00 AM with a visibility score of 44/100.
Why this forecast?
There is a low chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions may help, but overall the forecast does not strongly support visibility.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Fredericton breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
20 / 40Geomagnetic activity (Kp 5.0) contribution to the score.
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Aurora oval probability
0 / 20OVATION aurora oval probability (0%) contribution.
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Cloud cover
8 / 20Cloud cover (59%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
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Darkness
15 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Enough for this locationKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Fredericton needs Kp ≥ 5.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Enough for this location
Expected Kp 5.0 reaches the 5 that Fredericton usually needs, so activity is not what limits the night — cloud, darkness and the moon decide the rest.
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Cloud cover
Clear skiesAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Clear skies
Skies are mostly clear, which is favorable for seeing the aurora.
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Sky darkness
Astronomical darknessAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Astronomical darkness
The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.
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Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
LowNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Low
The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.
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Aurora zone
Fair zoneHow favourable Fredericton's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Fair zone
Fredericton is in an occasional aurora region, so stronger geomagnetic activity is usually needed.
3-Day Aurora Forecast for Fredericton
Tonight
Low
3:00 AM–5:00 AM
Tomorrow night
Moderate
11:00 PM–1:00 AM
In 2 nights
Unlikely
10:00 PM–2:00 AM
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Fredericton
The aurora season in Fredericton usually runs from September to April.
Hours of darkness in Fredericton
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.3 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 11.7 |
Other aurora viewing spots near Fredericton
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you see the Northern Lights in Fredericton tonight?
Only during a storm. Fredericton needs Kp 5 or higher before the oval reaches it, and that happens a handful of nights in a year rather than most weeks. Even then it takes a clear sky, real darkness and a dim moon — cloud blocks aurora at any Kp.
What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Fredericton?
Fredericton lies at 52.6° geomagnetic latitude — roughly 13° south of the quiet oval's edge — so it takes a geomagnetic storm, Kp 5 or higher, before the ring reaches you, low on the northern horizon rather than overhead.
What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Fredericton?
September to April, with November to February the darkest stretch — though at this latitude the season is set by how often a storm reaches you, not by daylight.
Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Fredericton?
The best places to see the Northern Lights in Fredericton are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.