Aurora Forecast Tonight in Raleigh
Aurora season in Raleigh runs from September to April.
Tonight's Forecast
Low
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How we calculate the aurora score
LowWe combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Raleigh (region: low_latitude).
With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 7) and 45% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Raleigh, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.
Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.
Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.
Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.
Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.
Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.
Low chance tonight. Aurora may be possible only under very favorable local conditions.
Aurora visibility in Raleigh is low tonight. A stronger geomagnetic storm or better local conditions would improve the chance of seeing the Northern Lights.
With current Kp 5.0 (location needs ≥ 7) and 45% cloud cover, only a faint aurora is possible at Raleigh, and only under otherwise perfect conditions.
Max Kp
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Max Kp
Below thresholdKp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
5.0
Below threshold
Cloud Cover
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Cloud Cover
Clear skiesUp to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
20%
Clear skies
Moon
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Moon
Bright moonOver 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
77%
Bright moon
OVATION
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OVATION
LowLess than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
0%
Low
Best Viewing Window
10:00 PM – 2:00 AM
Best balance of darkness, geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.
Direction to Look
North
This location is farther from the auroral oval, so aurora is most likely to appear low on the northern horizon during strong activity.
Recommendation
Check the forecast again later. Aurora conditions can change quickly during geomagnetic activity.
Hour-by-hour visibility
Estimated aurora visibility score for each hour of tonight at Raleigh.
36
10:00 PM
36/10010:00 PM: 36/100 — low
Max Kp
4.7
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
36
11:00 PM
36/10011:00 PM: 36/100 — low
Max Kp
4.7
Cloud Cover
0%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
36
12:00 AM
36/10012:00 AM: 36/100 — low
Max Kp
4.7
Cloud Cover
1%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
36
1:00 AM
36/1001:00 AM: 36/100 — low
Max Kp
4.3
Cloud Cover
1%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
2:00 AM
16/1002:00 AM: 16/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
4.3
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
3:00 AM
16/1003:00 AM: 16/100 — unlikely
Max Kp
4.3
Cloud Cover
100%
Moon
77%
OVATION
0%
Best viewing window: 10:00 PM – 2:00 AM. Peak around 10:00 PM with a visibility score of 36/100.
Why this forecast?
There is a low chance of visible aurora tonight. Some conditions may help, but overall the forecast does not strongly support visibility.
Score breakdown
How tonight's aurora score for Raleigh breaks down into activity and visibility components.
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Geomagnetic activity
0 / 45Geomagnetic activity (Kp 5.0) contribution to the score.
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Aurora oval probability
0 / 15OVATION aurora oval probability (0%) contribution.
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Cloud cover
11 / 20Cloud cover (45%) contribution — clear skies score full points.
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Darkness
15 / 15Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.
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Moonlight
1 / 5Moon illumination (77%) contribution — new moon scores full points.
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Aurora zone
-5 ptsLatitude/zone bonus for Raleigh.
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Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)
Below thresholdKp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Raleigh needs Kp ≥ 7.
Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.
Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.
Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.
Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.
Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.
Below threshold
Geomagnetic activity is below the usual visibility threshold for Raleigh: expected Kp is 5.0, while this location usually needs around 7.
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Cloud cover
Clear skiesAverage cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.
Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.
25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.
50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.
Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.
Clear skies
Skies are mostly clear, which is favorable for seeing the aurora.
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Sky darkness
Astronomical darknessAurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.
Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.
Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.
Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.
Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.
Astronomical darkness
The sky reaches full astronomical darkness tonight — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, dark enough for even a faint aurora.
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Moon illumination
Bright moonA bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.
Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.
25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.
Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.
Bright moon
Moon is 77% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.
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Aurora oval probability (OVATION)
LowNOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.
Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.
5–20% probability — aurora possible.
20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.
Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.
Low
The aurora oval probability is low for this location tonight.
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Aurora zone
Low zoneHow favourable Raleigh's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.
Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.
Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.
High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.
Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.
Low zone
Raleigh is outside the main aurora zone, so visible aurora usually requires a strong geomagnetic storm.
3-Day Aurora Forecast for Raleigh
Tonight
Low
10:00 PM–2:00 AM
Tomorrow night
Unlikely
10:00 PM–2:00 AM
In 2 nights
Unlikely
10:00 PM–2:00 AM
Aurora Forecast AI Tracker
Get aurora alerts for Raleigh
Save Raleigh in Aurora Forecast AI Tracker to follow the local Northern Lights forecast, hourly aurora visibility and best viewing window. Get notified when Kp activity, darkness and cloud cover create better chances to see the aurora.
- Smart aurora alerts
- Best viewing window
- Hourly forecast
- Saved locations
Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Raleigh
The aurora season in Raleigh usually runs from September to April.
Hours of darkness in Raleigh
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.0 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 11.2 |
Other aurora viewing spots near Raleigh
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you see the Northern Lights in Raleigh tonight?
Rarely. Raleigh is far enough from the pole that it takes Kp 7 or more, storm levels, before the ring stretches this far. When it does, expect a faint glow low on the northern horizon rather than anything overhead — and a clear sky, or none of it matters.
What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Raleigh?
Aurora is rare this far from the pole. Raleigh sits at 44.9° geomagnetic latitude, about 21° south of the quiet oval, and needs Kp 7 or more before the ring stretches far enough — storm levels, not an ordinary night. When it does happen it is usually a faint glow low in the north, often clearer in a photograph than to the eye.
What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Raleigh?
The best months to see the Northern Lights in Raleigh are typically September to April, when nights are darker and aurora viewing conditions are better.
Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Raleigh?
Raleigh is large enough that its own sky-glow is the main obstacle, so plan on leaving it. Head out away from the lit side until the glow is behind you, and find an open view toward the north — a lake shore, a ridge, anywhere the horizon is not built up. Let your eyes adjust for 20–30 minutes once you are there, and keep the phone screen off.