Aurora Forecast Tonight in Bear Island

Aurora season in Bear Island runs from September to April.

Tonight's Forecast

Unlikely

How we calculate the aurora score

Unlikely

We combine geomagnetic activity (Kp), aurora oval probability (OVATION), cloud cover, darkness and moonlight, weighted for Bear Island (region: auroral_oval).

With current Kp 1.7 (location needs ≥ 1) and 99% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Bear Island.

Unlikely 0-19

Score 0–19. Conditions strongly limit aurora visibility.

Low 20-44

Score 20–44. A faint aurora is possible only under perfect conditions.

Moderate 45-64

Score 45–64. Aurora may be visible to alert observers in dark, clear skies.

High 65-84

Score 65–84. A good chance of a visible aurora display.

Very High 85-100

Score 85–100. Excellent odds — plan to be outside tonight.

Aurora viewing is unlikely tonight.

Aurora Score 0 /100

Aurora activity may be present above Bear Island, but visible Northern Lights are very unlikely because the sky remains too bright.

With current Kp 1.7 (location needs ≥ 1) and 99% cloud cover, aurora viewing is unlikely at Bear Island.

Max Kp

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

1.7

Enough for this location

Cloud Cover

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

99%

Overcast

Moon

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

80%

Bright moon

OVATION

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Moderate

🕐

Best Viewing Window

No dark window tonight

Typical: 22:00 – 04:00

0/100

4:00 AM: 0/100 — unlikely

Max Kp

1.3

Cloud Cover

100%

Moon

80%

OVATION

10:00 PM

11:00 PM

12:00 AM

1:00 AM

2:00 AM

3:00 AM

4:00 AM

Best window around 10:00 PM (score 0).

Why this forecast?

The forecast is unlikely because one or more key conditions are not favorable for visible aurora tonight.

Score breakdown

How tonight's aurora score for Bear Island breaks down into activity and visibility components.

Geomagnetic activity

22 / 30

Geomagnetic activity (Kp 1.7) contribution to the score.

22 / 30

Aurora oval probability

10 / 30

OVATION aurora oval probability (5%) contribution.

10 / 30

Cloud cover

0 / 20

Cloud cover (99%) contribution — clear skies score full points.

0 / 20

Darkness

0 / 15

Sky darkness contribution — astronomical darkness scores full points.

0 / 15

Moonlight

1 / 5

Moon illumination (80%) contribution — new moon scores full points.

1 / 5

Aurora zone

+10 pts

Latitude/zone bonus for Bear Island.

+10 pts

Aurora activity 64 / 100

Sky visibility 1 / 100

Final score 0 / 100

✓

Geomagnetic activity 1.7 / 1

Geomagnetic activity (Kp index)

Enough for this location

Kp measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is on a 0–9 scale. Higher Kp pushes the aurora oval toward the equator. Bear Island needs Kp ≥ 1.

Below threshold

Kp is below the minimum needed at this latitude.

Near threshold

Kp is close to the minimum needed — a faint aurora may appear low on the horizon.

Enough for this location

Kp meets the threshold for visible aurora here.

Strong for this location

Kp is comfortably above the local threshold.

Geomagnetic storm

Storm-level Kp ≥ 5 — aurora can be seen far south of its usual zone.

Enough for this location

Geomagnetic activity is only marginal for Bear Island: expected Kp is 1.7, while this location usually needs around 1.

Cloud cover 99%

Cloud cover

Overcast

Average cloud cover during the best viewing window. Clear skies are essential — even thin overcast hides the aurora.

Clear skies

Up to 25% cloud — excellent visibility.

Partly cloudy

25–50% cloud — aurora may peek through gaps.

Cloudy

50–85% cloud — most of the sky is blocked.

Overcast

Over 85% cloud — aurora effectively hidden.

Overcast

Cloud cover is high tonight, which can block the view even if aurora activity is present.

Darkness No dark window

Sky darkness

No dark window

Aurora is faint and needs a dark sky. Astronomical darkness (sun more than 18° below horizon) is ideal.

No dark window

Sun stays above 6° below horizon all night — no aurora-friendly darkness.

Civil twilight

Sun 6–12° below horizon — too bright for faint aurora.

Nautical twilight

Sun 12–18° below horizon — sky is dark but not fully astronomical.

Astronomical darkness

Sun more than 18° below the horizon — fully dark sky.

No dark window

There is little or no usable darkness tonight, so visible aurora is very unlikely.

Moonlight 80%

Moon illumination

Bright moon

A bright moon washes out faint aurora colours. New moon is ideal; full moon hides everything but the strongest displays.

Dark moon

Less than 25% illuminated — minimal interference.

Moderate moonlight

25–75% illuminated — faint aurora may be washed out.

Bright moon

Over 75% illuminated — only strong displays will be visible.

Bright moon

Moon is 80% illuminated — expect washed-out faint aurora.

•

Aurora oval probability 5%

Aurora oval probability (OVATION)

Moderate

NOAA's OVATION model estimates the chance of aurora visible overhead within a 250 km radius of you.

Low

Less than 5% probability — aurora unlikely to reach this location.

Moderate

5–20% probability — aurora possible.

Elevated

20–40% probability — aurora likely if skies are clear.

High

Over 40% probability — aurora very likely overhead.

Moderate

✓

Aurora zone Excellent zone

Aurora zone

Excellent zone

How favourable Bear Island's latitude is for aurora viewing in general — independent of tonight's conditions.

Low zone

Lower latitude — aurora is rare and requires a major storm.

Fair zone

Mid-latitude — aurora visible only during moderate-to-strong storms.

Good zone

High-latitude region — aurora is visible on most active nights.

Excellent zone

Directly under the auroral oval — aurora is a regular occurrence.

Excellent zone

Bear Island is in a prime aurora zone, so aurora can be visible during regular activity when skies are dark and clear.

Data sources

· NOAA SWPC Kp forecast
· NOAA OVATION aurora model
· Open-Meteo cloud forecast

Aurora Forecast AI Tracker

Get aurora alerts for Bear Island

Track the aurora forecast for Bear Island with hourly visibility, cloud cover and geomagnetic activity. Save nearby viewing spots, check the best time to look for the Northern Lights, and receive alerts when local conditions improve.

Smart aurora alerts
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Hourly forecast
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Best Months to See the Northern Lights in Bear Island

Best: September to April Peak: January, February, March, October, November and December

September October November December January February March April

The aurora season in Bear Island usually runs from September to April.

Bear Island is located in the auroral oval region, which means auroras can often become visible when the Kp index reaches around 1 or higher. The best chances usually come during the darkest months of the season, with clear skies and low light pollution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What Kp index is needed to see the Northern Lights in Bear Island?

In Bear Island, a Kp index around 1+ usually gives a realistic chance of visible aurora, depending on darkness, clouds, and light pollution.

What are the best months to see the Northern Lights in Bear Island?

The best months to see the Northern Lights in Bear Island are typically September to April, when nights are darker and aurora viewing conditions are better.

Where is the best place to see the Northern Lights in Bear Island?

The best places to see the Northern Lights in Bear Island are dark areas away from city lights, with a clear view toward the northern horizon.